DeYoung, author of "Soldier: The Life of Colin Powell," is senior diplomatic correspondent and an associate editor of The Washington Post.
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Karen DeYoung: Welcome. Lots of questions here about whether Iraq is demanding a timeline for U.S. withdrawal, status of forces agreement, etc. I'll try to explain.
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San Diego: Why did negotiations for the status of forces agreement collapse? Was it because of an impasse, a lack of sufficient time/will, etc.? Also, is the Iraqi government planning to recess for the month of August, as it did last year? Was that also a factor?
Karen DeYoung: The negotiations didn't collapse. What started in March were bilateral negotiations over two separate documents--a status of forces agreement to provide a legal framework for U.S. military presence and activities in Iraq, and a "strategic framework agreement" that would set a course for a longterm economic, political, cultural and security relationship between Iraq and the United States. The strategic framework negotiating teams have been moving ahead fairly steadily. The SOFA negotiating teams got deeply bogged down by the end of May, a situation that got even more difficult when the terms of a U.S. draft proposal were leaked. It basically allowed U.s. military to continue doing what it has been doing--conducting military operations and detaining Iraqi civilians when and where it wanted, without asking Iraqi permission. Also gave blanket immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law for U.S. military, DOD personnel, and U.S. DOD security contractors. Iraqis balked at this as an infringement on their sovereignty--not least because it's a political hot potato and elections are pending. Particularly sensitive is a "timeline" for withdrawal. To make a long story short, it was decided last month not to go for the full monty on a SOFA, but to do what the military calls a "temporary operating protocol" that will cover the most urgent needs of the military for the next year or so, while continuing to talk about the longerm SOFA. They have papered over the operations and detainee control issues by forming a joint high level U.s.-Iraq committee that has titular control over both, and the Americans have agreed to include a "time horizon" for withdrawal...a kind of notional date when they'll withdraw from more visible positions in Iraqi cities, etc., assuming all is calm.
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Karen DeYoung: Excuse the delay in the above long answer. I got called away for a few minutes in mid-typing. Will go on a bit after time limit to get to your questions.
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Princeton, N.J.: Two similar questions: First, are they any plans to get the 5 million displaced persons in and out of Iraq back to their homes, particularly if they came from an ethnically cleansed area such as Baghdad or Kirkuk? Based on the history of civil strife from the 30 years war to Bosnia, I believe there is a high probability that many (more than 2 million) will have to die before stability can be achieved. Even if you only believe there is just a possibility of such a catastrophe, should we have some plans to deal with it? Do we?
Karen DeYoung: Little progress made on the refugee issue. The International Crisis Group this week published a lengthy report on refugees, which you can find on their site. It calls on the Iraqi government--which has said a lot but done little--to spend some of their oil surplus on helping those running out of money in Syria and Jordan. And calls on the international community to start paying more attention. Those relative few (out of about 5 million displaced within and outside Iraq) who have returned home have done so largely because they've run out of resources to stay away.
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Minneapolis: What's going to keep Afghanistan from becoming the next Iraq (though they've had years to regroup and learn our modus operandi), and what will prevent Iraq from becoming the next Lebanon? (I don't see how pullout/redeployment solves any of our problems, both from a counterinsurgency standpoint and from a logistical one (i.e. a friend of mine is on his fifth tour). Thank you.
Karen DeYoung: Things are not going well in Afghanistan. Although there seems to be widespread agreement more foreign troops needed, it's not at all clear that will be the answer.
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Arlington, Va.: Sen. Obama pointed to Malaki's call for a timetable in his op-ed outlining his plan to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, but the BBC is now reporting that Malaki did not say what was widely and incorrectly reported. What he actually said was "the direction is towards either a memorandum of understanding on their evacuation, or a memorandum of understanding on programming their presence." What is the position of the Malaki government? Have they clarified their statement? When will The Post print a correction or clarification?
washingtonpost.com: Iraq faces dilemma over US troops (BBC, July 14)
Karen DeYoung: See above response. Maliki said he wanted "either a memorandum of understanding for the departure of forces or a memorandum of understanding to set a timetable for the presence of the forces, so that we know [their presence] will end in a specific time." I think the Iraqis agree on some kind of conditions-based departure. But Maliki also wants some dates to counter pressure from Sadr and others who have demanded a "timetable."
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Freising, Germany: How is the oil business doing in Iraq these days? I've read that technical support agreements were pending between the Iraqi government and international oil companies, but is there any hope of increasing production in the short or medium term?
Karen DeYoung: They're somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million bpd--not great, but high oil prices have meant a lot more money. Oil ministry still shooting for 5 million, but it's been very slow going. The contracts are to improve production in existing fields. Development and longer term production contracts still await passage of a hydrocarbons law.
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Stone Harbor, N.J.: The poll today shows voters equally divided for/against the Iraq conflict. Why is it, do you think, that so many commentators and journalists keep trumpeting that the majority of Americans want us out immediately? Is it wishful thinking on their part (hoping Obama will be elected) or are they really so out of touch?
washingtonpost.com: Poll Finds Voters Split on Candidates' Iraq-Pullout Positions (Post, July 15)
Karen DeYoung: Split in today's Washington Post poll is between those who agree with Obama's 16-month combat troop withdrawal timetable, and those who favor McCain's "conditions-based" approach with no timetable. Respondents also split down the middle on who they think better able to handle the war in general. A sizeable and largely unchanged majority (63 percent) say the war was not worth fighting in the first place, although there is a slight uptick (up to 46 percent from 40 percent) who say current U.s. policy is making some progress in restoring civil order.
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Seattle: Easy one: Is Maliki's call for a timeline a negotiating tactic, an attempt to boost domestic support, or genuine? Probably a combination of all three, but which is primary, in your opinion?
Karen DeYoung: I agree it's all three. A realization that he can't have it both ways--can't say things are better, Iraqi security forces are doing great, but we still need as many Americans here for the forseeable future. Iraqis are tired of seeing so many American soldiers around. That's one of the reasons why the "time horizon" now being negotiated is likely to be initially for withdrawal from more visible positions in Iraqi cities, rather than withdrawal from the country altogether.
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