Turkey's Putin Deserves to Go

by Michael Rubin
Wall Street Journal
June 6, 2008
http://www.meforum.org/article/1919
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ISTANBUL – Yesterday Turkey's constitutional court overturned a new law that would have allowed women in the secular republic – established in 1923 by the Westernizing Mustafa Kemal Ataturk – to wear Muslim headscarves in universities.

It now appears all but certain that this summer the court will go even further when it decides a larger case against the country's Islamic-rooted Justice and Development (AK) Party. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AK stand accused of violating "the principles of a democratic and secular republic." Penalties could range from a suspension of the party's public financing to its disbandment and the suspension of its leadership from politics. Such a development should be welcome in the United States.

Some former U.S. diplomats argue that the court is antidemocratic. "The party's neutering would be a serious setback for democracy," wrote Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, on this page last month. Such sentiment, though, exculpates the offender and could land a mortal blow to democracy in Turkey.

Mr. Erdogan's impatience with the rule of law and his dictatorial tendencies make him appear less an aggrieved democrat, and more a protégé of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin – a man whom Western officials now acknowledge to be a dictator. It may be too late in Moscow, but it's déjà vu all over again in Ankara.

Both diplomats and Turks embraced Mr. Erdogan's rise. In February 2001, Turkey's economy crashed. In a single day, the stock market dropped 18%, the Turkish lira lost one-third of its value, and per capita income plunged. Corruption scandals abounded and delegitimized established leaders. Mr. Erdogan's promises of a fresh start resonated not only with the Turkish public – who saw a fresh face untainted at the time by corruption – but also with a wide array of U.S. officials, who saw in him and his party a liberalizing force that could reconcile political Islam with Western democracy.

In the November 2002 elections, the AKP won 32%, a landslide by Turkish standards, and one amplified into unprecedented control because a quirk in Turkish electoral law gave Mr. Erdogan's party almost two-thirds of the parliament. Benefiting from his predecessor's IMF reform package and a huge influx of funds from Saudi Arabia and Gulf emirates, Mr. Erdogan presided over economic growth averaging nearly 7% per year.

Slowly, the gap between myth and reality widened. As the AKP grew secure amidst first parliamentary and then municipal electoral success, Mr. Erdogan turned on the democracy he had opportunistically embraced. He instituted an interview process to ensure the political loyalty of professional civil servants and, in an attempt to pack the judiciary with his own apparatchiks, he tried to force almost half Turkey's judges to retire early. When the courts found against the government for illegal seizure of opponents' property, Mr. Erdogan refused to honor the verdicts.

The crisis heightened last summer: Rather than continue a long tradition of seeking a consensus candidate for the presidency, an office meant to be above politics, Mr. Erdogan imposed his own party's choice (the unabashedly Islamist Abdullah Gul) over opposition objections.

Mr. Erdogan's disdain for press independence rivals the Kremlin's. He has sued more journalists than any predecessor, and has leaned on the owners of media outlets to rein in editors. Those who do not abide the prime minister's wishes face consequences. Police have referenced wiretaps of journalists during interrogations of editors.

In April 2007, Turkey's Saving Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) – staffed entirely by Erdogan appointees – seized control of Sabah newspaper and ATV television, flagships of Turkey's second-largest media company. Earlier this year, they transferred ownership to an Erdogan ally after the prime minister stepped in to force the withdrawal of all competing bidders, and also removed state bank governors who'd objected to financing the sale because of the proposed loan's breach of their bylaws. The AKP used its absolute majority in parliament to shut down the ensuing investigation.

That too is a pattern. His cabinet faces almost 30 corruption probes, and the prime minister more than a dozen. Mr. Erdogan has transformed parliamentary immunity into carte blanche for profit.

Rather than show contrition in the face of the constitutional court's review, Mr. Erdogan has accelerated his attacks on civil liberties. Even the vice president of the constitutional court has claimed that he is a victim of illegal police surveillance.

An autocratic Turkey is not in U.S. or European interests. Mr. Erdogan pays lip service to Europe but disdains its institutions, arguing, for example, that only Muslim clerics are qualified to adjudicate Turkish human rights.

Rather than bridge the gap between Islam and the West, he has widened it by encouraging the most virulent anti-American and anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. According to the Pew Global Attitudes survey, Turkey is now the world's most anti-American country.

Electoral success should never put politicians above the rule of law. That Mr. Erdogan won 47% in the last election heightens the tragedy, but should not buy immunity. In the U.S. and in Europe, the judiciary is the guardian of democracy. That it is as well in Turkey underlines the maturity of Turkey's democracy. Mr. Erdogan may aspire to be Mr. Putin, but he should neither have U.S. nor European support for his ambitions.

Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, is editor of the Middle East Quarterly.

June 8, 2008
OP-ED COLUMNIST
People vs. Dinosaurs

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Tefen Industrial Park, Israel

Question: What do America’s premier investor, Warren Buffett, and Iran’s toxic president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have in common? Answer: They’ve both made a bet about Israel’s future.

Ahmadinejad declared on Monday that Israel “has reached its final phase and will soon be wiped out from the geographic scene.”

By coincidence, I heard the Iranian leader’s statement on Israel Radio just as I was leaving the headquarters of Iscar, Israel’s famous precision tool company, headquartered in the Western Galilee, near the Lebanon border. Iscar is known for many things, most of all for being the first enterprise that Buffett bought overseas for his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett paid $4 billion for 80 percent of Iscar and the deal just happened to close a few days before Hezbollah, a key part of Iran’s holding company, attacked Israel in July 2006, triggering a monthlong war. I asked Iscar’s chairman, Eitan Wertheimer, what was Buffett’s reaction when he found out that he had just paid $4 billion for an Israeli company and a few days later Hezbollah rockets were landing outside its parking lot.

Buffett just brushed it off with a wave, recalled Wertheimer: “He said, ‘I’m not interested in the next quarter. I’m interested in the next 20 years.’ ” Wertheimer repaid that confidence by telling half his employees to stay home during the war and using the other half to keep the factory from not missing a day of work and setting a production record for the month. It helps when many of your “employees” are robots that move around the buildings, beeping humans out of the way.

So who would you put your money on? Buffett or Ahmadinejad? I’d short Ahmadinejad and go long Warren Buffett.

Why? From outside, Israel looks as if it’s in turmoil, largely because the entire political leadership seems to be under investigation. But Israel is a weak state with a strong civil society. The economy is exploding from the bottom up. Israel’s currency, the shekel, has appreciated nearly 30 percent against the dollar since the start of 2007.

The reason? Israel is a country that is hard-wired to compete in a flat world. It has a population drawn from 100 different countries, speaking 100 different languages, with a business culture that strongly encourages individual imagination and adaptation and where being a nonconformist is the norm. While you were sleeping, Israel has gone from oranges to software, or as they say around here, from Jaffa to Java.

The day I visited the Iscar campus, one of its theaters was filled with industrialists from the Czech Republic, who were getting a lecture — in Czech — from Iscar experts. The Czechs came all the way to the Israel-Lebanon border region to learn about the latest innovations in precision tool-making. Wertheimer is famous for staying close to his customers and the latest technologies. “If you sleep on the floor,” he likes to say, “you never have to worry about falling out of bed.”

That kind of hunger explains why, in the first quarter of 2008, the top four economies after America in attracting venture capital for start-ups were: Europe $1.53 billion, China $719 million, Israel $572 million and India $99 million, according to Dow Jones VentureSource. Israel, with 7 million people, attracted almost as much as China, with 1.3 billion.

Boaz Golany, who heads engineering at the Technion, Israel’s M.I.T., told me: “In the last eight months, we have had delegations from I.B.M., General Motors, Procter & Gamble and Wal-Mart visiting our campus. They are all looking to develop R & D centers in Israel.”

Ahmadinejad professes not to care about such things. He was — to put it in American baseball terms — born on third base and thinks he hit a triple. Because oil prices have gone up to nearly $140 a barrel, he feels relaxed predicting that Israel will disappear, while Iran maintains a welfare state — with more than 10 percent unemployment.

Iran has invented nothing of importance since the Islamic Revolution, which is a shame. Historically, Iranians have been a dynamic and inventive people — one only need look at the richness of Persian civilization to see that. But the Islamic regime there today does not trust its people and will not empower them as individuals.

Of course, oil wealth can buy all the software and nuclear technology you want, or can’t develop yourself. This is not an argument that we shouldn’t worry about Iran. Ahmadinejad should, though.

Iran’s economic and military clout today is largely dependent on extracting oil from the ground. Israel’s economic and military power today is entirely dependent on extracting intelligence from its people. Israel’s economic power is endlessly renewable. Iran’s is a dwindling resource based on fossil fuels made from dead dinosaurs.

So who will be here in 20 years? I’m with Buffett: I’ll bet on the people who bet on their people — not the people who bet on dead dinosaurs.

RUSSIA: OIL PRODUCER WANTS IRAQ DEAL

Russia’s largest independent oil producer, LUKoil, wants to develop Iraq’s largest oil field, West Qurna-2, company CEO Vagit Alekperov said June 7, RIA Novosti reported. West Qurna-2 is the second field in an initial two-leg deal with LUKoil that was frozen in 2002. Iraq is also reportedly talking to Chevron and Total about the field, although Russia recently wrote off the bulk of the country’s debt, leading analysts to suggest that Baghdad will move forward with LUKoil.

source: www.stratfor.com
--------------------------------------------------------

To some the idea that Russia would be able to capitalize on Iraqi oil deals without having participated in the liberation of the country seems contradictory. However, it is important that G-20 players ALL get in on 'FDI'-Foreign Direct Investment in Iraq.
Simple reason, it globalizes the self interest of 'investing nations'.

Just keep in mind its all about keeping the SUPPLY CHAINS OPEN, so that RESOURCES can be moved in and out. This is what created jobs and pulls people from poverty and strengthens pluralistic forms of governments.

The Rise of Non-Americanism
Sunday, May 18, 2008; BW04

THE POST-AMERICAN WORLD

By Fareed Zakaria

Norton. 292 pp. $25.95

After the Iraq war, Fareed Zakaria argued in his Newsweek column that the world's new organizing principle was pro- or anti-Americanism. But as the Iraq muddle drags on and China rises, the larger story of the post-Cold War era has come into sharp relief: We are not the center of the universe. It matters less that particular countries are pro- or anti-American than that the world is increasingly non-American. We need to get over ourselves.

Zakaria's The Post-American World is about the "rise of the rest," a catchy phrase from one of the most widely cited writers on foreign affairs. His prism is correct: We should focus more on the "rest," even if America is still the premier superpower. But within this broad approach, Zakaria leaves policy-makers to figure out how to rank challenges and restore U.S. legitimacy.

Zakaria zooms in on Asia, especially India and China, which he uses as proxies for "the rest." The first third of the book sets out his thesis -- "For the first time ever, we are witnessing genuinely global growth" -- and the next third describes how China's economy has doubled every eight years and how India may have the world's third largest economy by 2040.

This year has brought a flood of books on Asia's rise, including Bill Emmott's Rivals and Kishore Mahbubani's The New Asian Hemisphere. For the most part, they embody the "world is flat" thesis -- lots of economic statistics, little geography. But geopolitics is about more than growth rates. It matters that China borders a dozen more countries than India does, isn't hemmed in by a vast ocean and the world's tallest mountains, has a loyal diaspora twice the size of India's and enjoys a head start in Asian and African marketplaces. Zakaria's chapters on China and India, though of equal length, should not connote equivalency, and all "the rest" cannot be happily lumped together. Does China's example tell us what has gone wrong in Venezuela and Pakistan, and could go wrong in Egypt and Indonesia?

Ironically, the final third of The Post-American World, which focuses on us rather than on "the rest," is the strongest. Zakaria argues that America's world-beating economic vibrancy co-exists with a dysfunctional political system. "A 'can-do' country is now saddled with a 'do-nothing' political process, designed for partisan battle rather than problem solving," he writes. That makes it hard to devise a grand strategy, and Zakaria offers just a few "simple guidelines" on the need to set priorities, build global rules and be flexible. But in this non-American world, it may be too late to restore U.S. leadership. "The rest" is moving on.

-- Parag Khanna is a fellow at the New America Foundation and author of "The Second World."

source: stratfor.com

INTELLIGENCE GUIDANCE: WEEK OF JUNE 8, 2008

All guidance from last week remains in place. Supplemental guidance:

1. More on oil: The oil market has made another run for the top. There is endless speculation about why this is so, of course, but what matters to us is what this means. The transfer of funds to Arabia and Russia continues and so does the squeeze on China. Let’s not worry about the exact price of oil. Let’s focus on the effects it has on the Arabian countries and on China. The pressure on the latter is getting intense.

2. The harvest season impact: On the flipside we’re getting into the season when early grain crops are available for harvest. This should take the sting out of high food prices, but only in specific locations. Other regions will suffer on until autumn. Map out who gets hit and how hard.

3. Mexico crime surge continues: Violence in Mexico is hitting new highs, but the government still hasn't mobilized a larger response. They've maintained a system of rotating troops around the country to combat violence in different areas as it pops up, but haven't made any substantial shifts. Increasing threats are being made against law enforcement officials. We need to watch for a shift in government tactics and increased high-value target attacks.

4. Israel and peace: Israeli politics are reaching the crisis stage and with it the future of any peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has had his time in the United States and burnished his credentials as a world leader as much as possible. From here forward, the prime minister is subject to his Cabinet’s maneuvers and decisions by prosecutors. The next week or two should be very telling.

5. Latin maneuvers: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has taken a pretty radical step in his reorganization of the intelligence structure and new regulations on informing. These moves are not those of a confident leader. Chavez has always played to an international audience and this won’t play well. He must be serious and in need of dramatically enhanced security. Several questions abound, namely will this make any difference? And, if it does, how will Venezuelans respond? It seems that Chavez is becoming more extreme and erratic in his actions. But the ultimate question remains, are we on the verge of anything or is this just standard behavior?

6. The Iranian situation: Stories about internal struggles in Iran continue. In particular are those about the position of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. FARS, a news service, was shut down this week in a symbolic gesture. Behind the shadows, something seems to be happening. We need to figure out what.

7. Iran and Israel: Shaul Mofaz, former chief of staff and a potential prime minister of Israel, has threatened attacks on Iran if it continues with its nuclear program. Obviously, the last thing you want to do if you intend to attack is announce it ahead of time. Surprise is crucial, or vital systems can be moved to other locations, scientists evacuated and so on. If you do attack, you want to get the entire capability, physical and human. So announcing attacks ahead of time doesn’t appear to be smart. Mofaz is no fool, raising the question of whether his actions are a response to internal Israeli politics, a bid to wage psychological warfare against Iran, or merely represent some weird interplay with U.S. President George Bush -- who is leery of talks with the Syrians and might prefer bellicose statements.

8. Alarming Iraqi silence: There is relatively little happening in Iraq that leaps to mind. That is extraordinarily important news. The entire situation has fallen into a definable container, and events are oscillating much less than before. Is this a long-term event or is there another storm coming.

9. The U.S. stage is set: It is Barack Obama against John McCain. How are foreign governments reading the race and who are they favoring? We need to start contacting our sources from Beijing to Paris to try to figure out how they read the candidates and who they are rooting for.

EURASIA

June 6-8: Russia's St. Petersburg Economic Forum to take place; new President Dmitri Medvedev is slated to attend, and an informal summit of Commonwealth of Independent States' heads of state will take place on the sidelines
June 9: Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will hold a meeting, postponed from March 3, in Staubing, Bavaria; Elysee Palace had attributed the postponement to "scheduling reasons" rather than disagreement over France's Mediterranean Union project
June 12: Ireland to hold a referendum on EU's Treaty of Lisbon; Ireland is the only EU member state planning to hold a referendum on the treaty

MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA

June 6-7: Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to visit Saudi Arabia, accompanied by economic officials, to meet with Saudi officials and discuss economic cooperation and Pakistani oil facilities
June 7: French President Nicolas Sarkozy to visit Lebanon and meet with Lebanese parliament speaker Speaker Nabih Birri, Fouad Siniora and President Michel Suleiman; Sarkosy does not intend to meet with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon
June 8: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran and discuss the possible expansion of Iraqi-Iranian ties and the resumption of U.S.-Iranian talks on Iraqi security
June 10: Lawyers in Pakistan to begin "long march" protest covering multiple cities to demand that judges dismissed by President Pervez Musharraf, including deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, be reinstated

EAST ASIA

June 7: Japan and North Korea to hold unofficial working-level talks in Beijing on Pyongyang's past abductions and other issues in preparation for a possible resumption of stalled bilateral working group negotiations under the six-party framework; Akitaka Saiki, director general of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, and Song Il Ho, the North's ambassador in charge of normalization talks with Japan, will meet at 3 p.m. at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing
June 8-12: Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to visit Japan to discuss whaling, ongoing free trade agreement negotiations, financial cooperation, the development of regional architecture, climate change and disaster relief coordination
June 9-15: Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Mohammed Taha to pay an official visit to China
June 9-16: U.S. and North Korean nuclear experts to meet in Pyongyang at some point to discuss technical aspects of North Korea's possible declaration of its nuclear programs as promised under a six-party deal
June 11–14: Chairman of the Strait Exchange Foundation Chiang Pin-kun to visit Beijing by invitation of the Association for Relations Across Taiwan Straits to discuss weekend scheduled flights between the two countries and mainland tourists traveling to Taiwan
June 12-14: Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to visit Indonesia to discuss economic and security ties, financial cooperation, the development of regional architecture, climate change and disaster relief coordination

LATIN AMERICA

June 7: Venezuelan opposition groups will march to the office of the General Comptroller of the Republic to protest the government
June 9: Final day of ongoing Argentine farmer strikes

AFRICA

June 7-8: Delegates from the U.N. Security Council to visit the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
June 9: Delegates from the U.N. Security Council to visit Cote d'Ivoire
June 12: Nigerian President Umaru Yaradua to pay official visit to France

COUNTERTERRORISM/SECURITY

June 7: Kenyan outlawed Mungiki sect is to hold a prayer meeting at Uhuru Park in Nairobi; the government has banned the meeting, calling it illegal
June 11: Parliamentary by-elections in five Kenyan constituencies: Embakasi, Wajir
North, Kilgoris, Ainamoi and Emuhaya; two seats became vacant after the parliament members were killed, two were vacated after electoral disputes, and one incumbent parliament member was elected speaker of the National Assembly

Copyright 2008 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.