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Monday July 7, 2008
Geopolitical Diary: Pakistan's Growing Chaos July 7, 2008 | 0213 GMT
A suicide bombing July 7 in a central part of the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, killed 19 people — 15 of whom were policemen — and wounded dozens of others. The bomber targeted a security detachment that was on duty to guard against trouble at an event organized by radical Islamists to mark the first anniversary of the security operation against militants occupying the city’s Red Mosque, which began when Pakistan’s then-military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf ordered elite Pakistani military units to retake the mosque complex from the militants. The operation ended on July 11 with an official death toll of more than 100 and unofficial claims that several hundred — including women and children — were killed.
Islamabad regained control of the mosque, but in the year since then it has lost control of large parts of the Pashtun-dominated northwestern areas along the border with Afghanistan to Taliban forces. Furthermore, the use of suicide bombings has allowed these forces to reach beyond their strongholds and strike with impunity at the core of Pakistan, including the country’s main urban centers. Accompanying the rapidly deteriorating security situation has been political instability, which has only grown after the Feb. 18 elections. As Stratfor predicted, the elections — which the country’s main oppositions won by a landslide — failed to quell the political unrest that severely weakened not only Musharraf’s hold on power but also the army’s. Musharraf’s regime has been replaced by a civil-military hybrid which lacks the willingness and/or ability to take on the threat posed by Islamist extremism and militancy. The fact is that the civilian government and the country’s military establishment appear to be losing control of the situation.
By opting to negotiate with the jihadists from a position of weakness, the Pakistani authorities inadvertently are sending a message to every armed non-state actor of any worth in the country (of which there is no shortage) that all the jihadists have to do to make the government more pliable is use their weapons. This signal has led to the spread of the Taliban in Pakistan. Any pause in militancy is not because the state has succeeded in containing the insurgency; rather, it is because the jihadists have made a tactical decision in keeping with their strategy. While the jihadists are brimming with confidence, judging from the way Islamabad is randomly oscillating between negotiations and military operations, the government does not appear to have a discernable policy for dealing with this situation.
Stratfor extensively has addressed Pakistan’s intelligence problem which enables militant activity and prevents the state from doing much about it. The problem is actually far larger than an intelligence failure: We are told that many of Pakistan’s senior and military officials are caught up in Pakistani society’s conspiracy theories about the causes of the growing chaos in the country. In other words, there is national lack of acknowledgement that the country is being torn apart by religious extremism.
What is even worse for Pakistan is that its jihadist problem is a geopolitical issue rather than a political one. This means that the Pakistanis cannot deal with it at a time of their choosing. This would explain the United States’ increasingly aggressive attitude in dealing with the situation. U.S. airstrikes in the country’s tribal badlands have become an almost daily occurrence, and it is only a matter of time before Washington escalates its unilateral military operations deeper into Pakistani territory.
A key purpose of Stratfor’s diary is to try and look over the horizon at what can be expected about the issue it is addressing. A year after Red Mosque operation, Pakistan appears to be spinning out of control. It is difficult to say with any clarity what will happen in another year, other than that there do not appear to be many arrestors to counter the current trend toward anarchy — even if the military steps in
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Sunday July 6, 2008
Barnett: Demographic challenges need not be dangerous
By Thomas P.M. Barnett Sunday, July 6, 2008
The advanced Western world is getting old, and the rising East grows gray around the temples. Meanwhile, the developing South is in the midst of processing huge "youth bulges" that should keep it restless for another couple of decades before slipping into middle age. In short, the entire planet is aging in an unprecedented fashion, according to demographers Richard Jackson and Neil Howe in their intriguing new book.
Entitled "The Graying of the Great Powers," this slim volume presents a host of compelling demographic trends that are undeniable, even if the authors' follow-on geopolitical strategizing borders on the vague fear-mongering usually associated with national security experts hellbent on finding new ways to predict wars.
I was one of the many national security experts interviewed for the book. I'm also one of the demographic optimists cited in the text as assuming an aging population will - by all historical experience - experience less crime, warfare, and revolutionary ferment while enjoying more political pluralism.
When economies develop, including shifts like urbanization, women tend to put off pregnancy and have fewer babies, triggering the demographic transition to an older, wealthier society. In my mind, demographic aging is less a cause of democracy and peace and more its reflection.
But being demographers, Jackson and Howe naturally spot more causality. We know, for example, about the demographic "dividend" that happens early in the transition toward development: when a society has lots of workers and relatively few nonworkers to support. Obviously, your society wants to get rich before it grows old, something the West pulled off.
What's so odd today is that Asia's emerging economies are rapidly aging while they're still developing, suggesting a demographic train wreck down the road: not enough workers to support an elder-heavy society that's just grown accustomed to a better life.
So here's the witch's brew that Jackson and Howe fear we'll face in the 2020s: the West settling into its old age - and economic decline - just as the East absorbs a tsunami of elders slowing down its economic advance, sabotaging its transition to peaceful democracy. Meanwhile, the restless South, even if it successfully processes its current youth bulge, faces its destabilizing "echo boom."
In their geopolitical analysis, Jackson and Howe predict a weakened and withdrawn West, a more authoritarian and thus aggressive East, and a South full of social strife. In their defense, it is precisely - as they repeatedly point out-the unprecedented nature of all this simultaneous aging that justifies such pessimism.
But here's how we reign in such fears of future global conflict.
History says wealth equals military power, even if you pay somebody else to pull the trigger, so don't write off the West just yet, especially the United States, which Jackson and Howe predict must carry a larger share of the West's military burden - no shocker there.
Second, we're looking at the unprecedented emergence of a global middle class, largely based in the East but also increasingly in the South. Sure, history tells us that an angry, threatened middle class can get you fascism if you're not careful, but frankly, that wouldn't be much of a setback for many of these states.
But here we must factor in the empowering nature of the information revolution still sweeping the planet, which, contrary to George Orwell's famous fears, progressively weakens the power of autocrats. Plus, you need to remember how nuclear weapons basically killed great power war - six-plus decades and counting.
Add it all up, and it's fair to say the planet is heading into uncharted territory but not necessarily a more dangerous world. The key for the West, as Jackson and Howe wisely conclude, is to expand its definition of the developed world, meaning we need to integrate the East into our power networks well before all those demographic pressures kick into high gear about a generation from now.
Thomas P.M. Barnett (tom@thomaspmbarnett.com) is a distinguished strategist at the Oak Ridge Associated Universities and author of the forthcoming book "Great Powers: America and the World After Bush."
© 2008 Knoxville News Sentinel
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July 6, 2008 Ancient Tablet Ignites Debate on Messiah and Resurrection
By ETHAN BRONNER JERUSALEM — A three-foot-tall tablet with 87 lines of Hebrew that scholars believe dates from the decades just before the birth of Jesus is causing a quiet stir in biblical and archaeological circles, especially because it may speak of a messiah who will rise from the dead after three days.
If such a messianic description really is there, it will contribute to a developing re-evaluation of both popular and scholarly views of Jesus, since it suggests that the story of his death and resurrection was not unique but part of a recognized Jewish tradition at the time.
The tablet, probably found near the Dead Sea in Jordan according to some scholars who have studied it, is a rare example of a stone with ink writings from that era — in essence, a Dead Sea Scroll on stone.
It is written, not engraved, across two neat columns, similar to columns in a Torah. But the stone is broken, and some of the text is faded, meaning that much of what it says is open to debate.
Still, its authenticity has so far faced no challenge, so its role in helping to understand the roots of Christianity in the devastating political crisis faced by the Jews of the time seems likely to increase.
Daniel Boyarin, a professor of Talmudic culture at the University of California at Berkeley, said that the stone was part of a growing body of evidence suggesting that Jesus could be best understood through a close reading of the Jewish history of his day.
“Some Christians will find it shocking — a challenge to the uniqueness of their theology — while others will be comforted by the idea of it being a traditional part of Judaism,” Mr. Boyarin said.
Given the highly charged atmosphere surrounding all Jesus-era artifacts and writings, both in the general public and in the fractured and fiercely competitive scholarly community, as well as the concern over forgery and charlatanism, it will probably be some time before the tablet’s contribution is fully assessed. It has been around 60 years since the Dead Sea Scrolls were uncovered, and they continue to generate enormous controversy regarding their authors and meaning.
The scrolls, documents found in the Qumran caves of the West Bank, contain some of the only known surviving copies of biblical writings from before the first century A.D. In addition to quoting from key books of the Bible, the scrolls describe a variety of practices and beliefs of a Jewish sect at the time of Jesus.
How representative the descriptions are and what they tell us about the era are still strongly debated. For example, a question that arises is whether the authors of the scrolls were members of a monastic sect or in fact mainstream. A conference marking 60 years since the discovery of the scrolls will begin on Sunday at the Israel Museum in Jerusalem, where the stone, and the debate over whether it speaks of a resurrected messiah, as one iconoclastic scholar believes, also will be discussed.
Oddly, the stone is not really a new discovery. It was found about a decade ago and bought from a Jordanian antiquities dealer by an Israeli-Swiss collector who kept it in his Zurich home. When an Israeli scholar examined it closely a few years ago and wrote a paper on it last year, interest began to rise. There is now a spate of scholarly articles on the stone, with several due to be published in the coming months.
“I couldn’t make much out of it when I got it,” said David Jeselsohn, the owner, who is himself an expert in antiquities. “I didn’t realize how significant it was until I showed it to Ada Yardeni, who specializes in Hebrew writing, a few years ago. She was overwhelmed. ‘You have got a Dead Sea Scroll on stone,’ she told me.”
Much of the text, a vision of the apocalypse transmitted by the angel Gabriel, draws on the Old Testament, especially the prophets Daniel, Zechariah and Haggai.
Ms. Yardeni, who analyzed the stone along with Binyamin Elitzur, is an expert on Hebrew script, especially of the era of King Herod, who died in 4 B.C. The two of them published a long analysis of the stone more than a year ago in Cathedra, a Hebrew-language quarterly devoted to the history and archaeology of Israel, and said that, based on the shape of the script and the language, the text dated from the late first century B.C.
A chemical examination by Yuval Goren, a professor of archaeology at Tel Aviv University who specializes in the verification of ancient artifacts, has been submitted to a peer-review journal. He declined to give details of his analysis until publication, but he said that he knew of no reason to doubt the stone’s authenticity.
It was in Cathedra that Israel Knohl, an iconoclastic professor of Bible studies at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, first heard of the stone, which Ms. Yardeni and Mr. Elitzur dubbed “Gabriel’s Revelation,” also the title of their article. Mr. Knohl posited in a book published in 2000 the idea of a suffering messiah before Jesus, using a variety of rabbinic and early apocalyptic literature as well as the Dead Sea Scrolls. But his theory did not shake the world of Christology as he had hoped, partly because he had no textual evidence from before Jesus.
When he read “Gabriel’s Revelation,” he said, he believed he saw what he needed to solidify his thesis, and he has published his argument in the latest issue of The Journal of Religion.
Mr. Knohl is part of a larger scholarly movement that focuses on the political atmosphere in Jesus’ day as an important explanation of that era’s messianic spirit. As he notes, after the death of Herod, Jewish rebels sought to throw off the yoke of the Rome-supported monarchy, so the rise of a major Jewish independence fighter could take on messianic overtones.
In Mr. Knohl’s interpretation, the specific messianic figure embodied on the stone could be a man named Simon who was slain by a commander in the Herodian army, according to the first-century historian Josephus. The writers of the stone’s passages were probably Simon’s followers, Mr. Knohl contends.
The slaying of Simon, or any case of the suffering messiah, is seen as a necessary step toward national salvation, he says, pointing to lines 19 through 21 of the tablet — “In three days you will know that evil will be defeated by justice” — and other lines that speak of blood and slaughter as pathways to justice.
To make his case about the importance of the stone, Mr. Knohl focuses especially on line 80, which begins clearly with the words “L’shloshet yamin,” meaning “in three days.” The next word of the line was deemed partially illegible by Ms. Yardeni and Mr. Elitzur, but Mr. Knohl, who is an expert on the language of the Bible and Talmud, says the word is “hayeh,” or “live” in the imperative. It has an unusual spelling, but it is one in keeping with the era.
Two more hard-to-read words come later, and Mr. Knohl said he believed that he had deciphered them as well, so that the line reads, “In three days you shall live, I, Gabriel, command you.”
To whom is the archangel speaking? The next line says “Sar hasarin,” or prince of princes. Since the Book of Daniel, one of the primary sources for the Gabriel text, speaks of Gabriel and of “a prince of princes,” Mr. Knohl contends that the stone’s writings are about the death of a leader of the Jews who will be resurrected in three days.
He says further that such a suffering messiah is very different from the traditional Jewish image of the messiah as a triumphal, powerful descendant of King David.
“This should shake our basic view of Christianity,” he said as he sat in his office of the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem where he is a senior fellow in addition to being the Yehezkel Kaufman Professor of Biblical Studies at Hebrew University. “Resurrection after three days becomes a motif developed before Jesus, which runs contrary to nearly all scholarship. What happens in the New Testament was adopted by Jesus and his followers based on an earlier messiah story.”
Ms. Yardeni said she was impressed with the reading and considered it indeed likely that the key illegible word was “hayeh,” or “live.” Whether that means Simon is the messiah under discussion, she is less sure.
Moshe Bar-Asher, president of the Israeli Academy of Hebrew Language and emeritus professor of Hebrew and Aramaic at the Hebrew University, said he spent a long time studying the text and considered it authentic, dating from no later than the first century B.C. His 25-page paper on the stone will be published in the coming months.
Regarding Mr. Knohl’s thesis, Mr. Bar-Asher is also respectful but cautious. “There is one problem,” he said. “In crucial places of the text there is lack of text. I understand Knohl’s tendency to find there keys to the pre-Christian period, but in two to three crucial lines of text there are a lot of missing words.”
Moshe Idel, a professor of Jewish thought at Hebrew University, said that given the way every tiny fragment from that era yielded scores of articles and books, “Gabriel’s Revelation” and Mr. Knohl’s analysis deserved serious attention. “Here we have a real stone with a real text,” he said. “This is truly significant.”
Mr. Knohl said that it was less important whether Simon was the messiah of the stone than the fact that it strongly suggested that a savior who died and rose after three days was an established concept at the time of Jesus. He notes that in the Gospels, Jesus makes numerous predictions of his suffering and New Testament scholars say such predictions must have been written in by later followers because there was no such idea present in his day.
But there was, he said, and “Gabriel’s Revelation” shows it.
“His mission is that he has to be put to death by the Romans to suffer so his blood will be the sign for redemption to come,” Mr. Knohl said. “This is the sign of the son of Joseph. This is the conscious view of Jesus himself. This gives the Last Supper an absolutely different meaning. To shed blood is not for the sins of people but to bring redemption to Israel.”
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080706/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_yellowcake_mission
AP Exclusive: US removes uranium from Iraq By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 10 minutes ago The last major remnant of Saddam Hussein's nuclear program — a huge stockpile of concentrated natural uranium — reached a Canadian port Saturday to complete a secret U.S. operation that included a two-week airlift from Baghdad and a ship voyage crossing two oceans.
The removal of 550 metric tons of "yellowcake" — the seed material for higher-grade nuclear enrichment — was a significant step toward closing the books on Saddam's nuclear legacy. It also brought relief to U.S. and Iraqi authorities who had worried the cache would reach insurgents or smugglers crossing to Iran to aid its nuclear ambitions.
What's now left is the final and complicated push to clean up the remaining radioactive debris at the former Tuwaitha nuclear complex about 12 miles south of Baghdad — using teams that include Iraqi experts recently trained in the Chernobyl fallout zone in Ukraine.
"Everyone is very happy to have this safely out of Iraq," said a senior U.S. official who outlined the nearly three-month operation to The Associated Press. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.
While yellowcake alone is not considered potent enough for a so-called "dirty bomb" — a conventional explosive that disperses radioactive material — it could stir widespread panic if incorporated in a blast. Yellowcake also can be enriched for use in reactors and, at higher levels, nuclear weapons using sophisticated equipment.
The Iraqi government sold the yellowcake to a Canadian uranium producer, Cameco Corp., in a transaction the official described as worth "tens of millions of dollars." A Cameco spokesman, Lyle Krahn, declined to discuss the price, but said the yellowcake will be processed at facilities in Ontario for use in energy-producing reactors.
"We are pleased ... that we have taken (the yellowcake) from a volatile region into a stable area to produce clean electricity," he said.
The deal culminated more than a year of intense diplomatic and military initiatives — kept hushed in fear of ambushes or attacks once the convoys were under way: first carrying 3,500 barrels by road to Baghdad, then on 37 military flights to the Indian Ocean atoll of Diego Garcia and finally aboard a U.S.-flagged ship for a 8,500-mile trip to Montreal.
And, in a symbolic way, the mission linked the current attempts to stabilize Iraq with some of the high-profile claims about Saddam's weapons capabilities in the buildup to the 2003 invasion.
Accusations that Saddam had tried to purchase more yellowcake from the African nation of Niger — and an article by a former U.S. ambassador refuting the claims — led to a wide-ranging probe into Washington leaks that reached high into the Bush administration.
Tuwaitha and an adjacent research facility were well known for decades as the centerpiece of Saddam's nuclear efforts.
Israeli warplanes bombed a reactor project at the site in 1981. Later, U.N. inspectors documented and safeguarded the yellowcake, which had been stored in aging drums and containers since before the 1991 Gulf War. There was no evidence of any yellowcake dating from after 1991, the official said.
U.S. and Iraqi forces have guarded the 23,000-acre site — surrounded by huge sand berms — following a wave of looting after Saddam's fall that included villagers toting away yellowcake storage barrels for use as drinking water cisterns.
Yellowcake is obtained by using various solutions to leach out uranium from raw ore and can have a corn meal-like color and consistency. It poses no severe risk if stored and sealed properly. But exposure carries well-documented health concerns associated with heavy metals such as damage to internal organs, experts say.
"The big problem comes with any inhalation of any of the yellowcake dust," said Doug Brugge, a professor of public health issues at the Tufts University School of Medicine.
Moving the yellowcake faced numerous hurdles.
Diplomats and military leaders first weighed the idea of shipping the yellowcake overland to Kuwait's port on the Persian Gulf. Such a route, however, would pass through Iraq's Shiite heartland and within easy range of extremist factions, including some that Washington claims are aided by Iran. The ship also would need to clear the narrow Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf, where U.S. and Iranian ships often come in close contact.
Kuwaiti authorities, too, were reluctant to open their borders to the shipment despite top-level lobbying from Washington.
An alternative plan took shape: shipping out the yellowcake on cargo planes.
But the yellowcake still needed a final destination. Iraqi government officials sought buyers on the commercial market, where uranium prices spiked at about $120 per pound last year. It's currently selling for about half that. The Cameco deal was reached earlier this year, the official said.
At that point, U.S.-led crews began removing the yellowcake from the Saddam-era containers — some leaking or weakened by corrosion — and reloading the material into about 3,500 secure barrels.
In April, truck convoys started moving the yellowcake from Tuwaitha to Baghdad's international airport, the official said. Then, for two weeks in May, it was ferried in 37 flights to Diego Garcia, a speck of British territory in the Indian Ocean where the U.S. military maintains a base.
On June 3, an American ship left the island for Montreal, said the official, who declined to give further details about the operation.
The yellowcake wasn't the only dangerous item removed from Tuwaitha.
Earlier this year, the military withdrew four devices for controlled radiation exposure from the former nuclear complex. The lead-enclosed irradiation units, used to decontaminate food and other items, contain elements of high radioactivity that could potentially be used in a weapon, according to the official. Their Ottawa-based manufacturer, MDS Nordion, took them back for free, the official said.
The yellowcake was the last major stockpile from Saddam's nuclear efforts, but years of final cleanup is ahead for Tuwaitha and other smaller sites.
The U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency plans to offer technical expertise.
Last month, a team of Iraqi nuclear experts completed training in the Ukrainian ghost town of Pripyat, which once housed the Chernobyl workers before the deadly meltdown in 1986, said an IAEA official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the decontamination plan has not yet been publicly announced.
But the job ahead is enormous, complicated by digging out radioactive "hot zones" entombed in concrete during Saddam's rule, said the IAEA official. Last year, an IAEA safety expert, Dennis Reisenweaver, predicted the cleanup could take "many years."
The yellowcake issue also is one of the many troubling footnotes of the war for Washington.
A CIA officer, Valerie Plame, claimed her identity was leaked to journalists to retaliate against her husband, former Ambassador Joe Wilson, who wrote that he had found no evidence to support assertions that Iraq tried to buy additional yellowcake from Niger.
A federal investigation led to the conviction of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice.
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Saturday July 5, 2008
DRC, ANGOLA, BELGIUM: THE WINNERS BEHIND A BEMBA TRIAL
Summary Jean-Pierre Bemba, a leading Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) political opposition figure, was reportedly transferred July 3 to the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague, where he is expected to face war crimes charges. The move effectively ends Bemba’s political career, while boosting not only the interests of DRC President Joseph Kabila, but also those of Angola and Belgium.
Analysis
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) political opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba was transferred July 3 to the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague, the Netherlands, where he is expected to face war crimes charges, Reuters reported. Bemba will see his career effectively end because of the development, while the governments of the DRC, Angola and Belgium will see their interests consolidated.
Bemba, a protege of former DRC (then Zaire) President Mobutu Sese Seko, had been the leading opposition figure in the DRC after having narrowly lost the 2006 presidential vote to incumbent Joseph Kabila. Bemba was subsequently elected to the Senate, where he led his Union of the Nation coalition before going into exile in Belgium. His transfer to The Hague comes a few weeks after Belgian authorities detained him on an ICC arrest warrant for war crimes committed in 2002 and 2003.
Though no date has yet been set for his trial, the move essentially brings Bemba’s political career to an end. The politician has been charged with committing war crimes in neighboring Central African Republic (CAR) when the DRC faced a civil war involving forces from most of its neighbors. Bemba is likely to challenge the charges, ensuring that the trial will not see a speedy conclusion.
Bemba’s entanglement at the ICC essentially removes him as a leading rival to Kabila, the son of the man who dethroned Mobutu. Though Kabila has struggled to extend his government’s control over the eastern region of the country that faces civil war, the Congolese president no longer faces a rival of political prominence -- at least not in the west around the capital region of Kinshasa. If Bemba is convicted, his business interests in Kinshasa -- including the ownership of private media and telecommunications interests -- will likely be sold or confiscated due to pressure by the DRC government. This would further strengthen Kabila’s hold over levers of power in the country.
The Bemba trial at The Hague not only boosts the interests of the Kabila-led government, but it also provides gains to Belgium (the former colonial power in the DRC) and Angola. Belgian complicity in Bemba’s detainment and transfer will improve strained relations between Belgium and the DRC. The Belgian government has criticized the DRC for lack of transparency and unaccountable spending, while the DRC government has refuted the accusations and threatened to disrupt diplomatic relations over the Belgian claims.
By detaining Bemba and ensuring that he faces trial, Belgium has removed a problem figure for the DRC government. The European country will likely be rewarded with a favorable review on a future investment deal (likely in the mining sector, though specific deals are still premature). Although relations will improve, it is unlikely that Belgium will see its influence in the DRC grow dramatically. The French, Americans, Chinese, Rwandans, and particularly the Angolans hold significant sway in Kinshasa.
Bemba’s trial also removes a lingering threat to Angola, which has feared that the leader could revert to a Mobutu-era tactic of supporting the Angolan rebel group-turned-political party National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). Angola is preparing for parliamentary elections in September, its first since 1992, and both the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) and UNITA are in full campaign mode. The MPLA is expected to win a parliamentary majority, though it does not want to take chances. It is deploying security personnel throughout the country to carry out a small-arms confiscation exercise aimed at ridding the countryside and UNITA supporters of weapons left over from the country’s civil war. The MPLA wants to use the elections to establish legitimacy and lay the groundwork for presidential elections slated for 2009. Though the MPLA would not be expected to accept an elections defeat, it is working to prevent UNITA as a political party from reverting to a rebel threat.
Ultimately, Bemba’s transfer to the ICC is not expected to trigger any significant backlash; his supporters and private militia have already been dispersed by DRC political and security forces. It will more likely trigger quiet celebrations in Kinshasa, Brussels and Luanda.
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