http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,331028371-110373,00.html
Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study
· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
· Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

Ashley Seager
Monday October 22, 2007
Guardian

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.
The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP behind the country's successful support system for renewable energy.

The report's author, Joerg Schindler, said its most alarming finding was the steep decline in oil production after its peak, which he says is now behind us.

The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment.

However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that.

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day - EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up.

Britain's oil production peaked in 1999 and has already dropped by half to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

Mr Schindler comes to a similar conclusion. "The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life."

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain's leading environmentalists and the author of Half Gone, a book about "peak oil" - defined as the moment when maximum production is reached, said that both the UK government and the energy industry were in "institutionalised denial" and that action should have been taken sooner.

"When I was an adviser to government, I proposed that we set up a taskforce to look at how fast the UK could mobilise alternative energy technologies in extremis, come the peak," he said. "Other industry advisers supported that. But the government prefers to sleep on without even doing a contingency study. For those of us who know that premature peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is impossible to understand such complacency."

Mr Fell said that the world had to move quickly towards the massive deployment of renewable energy and to a dramatic increase in energy efficiency, both as a way to combat climate change and to ensure that the lights stayed on. "If we did all this we may not have an energy crisis."

He accused the British government of hypocrisy. "Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have talked a lot about climate change but have not brought in proper policies to drive up the use of renewables," he said. "This is why they are left talking about nuclear and carbon capture and storage. "

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Department of Business and Enterprise said: "Over the next few years global oil production and refining capacity is expected to increase faster than demand. The world's oil resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future. The challenge will be to bring these resources to market in a way that ensures sustainable, timely, reliable and affordable supplies of energy."

The German policy, which guarantees above-market payments to producers of renewable power, is being adopted in many countries - but not Britain, where renewables generate about 4% of the country's electricity and 2% of its overall energy needs.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian News and Media Limited 2007

October 21, 2007
Opposition Party Wins Poland Election

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 8:45 p.m. ET

WARSAW, Poland (AP) -- A pro-business opposition party that wants Poland's troops out of Iraq ousted Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski's government in parliamentary elections Sunday, as Poles opted for leadership offering a more cooperative approach to the European Union.

Donald Tusk's Civic Platform party led with 41.1 percent of the vote after 11 percent of the votes were counted early Monday, and exit polls for TVN24 private television showed the party winning 226 seats in the 460-seat Sejm lower house.

That was short of the 231 needed for a majority -- but close enough for it to join with a smaller party to form a government.

Appearing before supporters late Sunday, Kaczynski conceded defeat, saying, ''we didn't manage in the face of this unprecedented broad front of attacks,'' referring to the opposition's campaign.

His Law and Justice party got 31.6 percent of the vote and a projected 156 seats, according to partial results and exit polls. Complete results are expected either later Monday or Tuesday.

A hard-fought campaign generated voter turnout of 55.3 percent, higher than any parliamentary elections since the fall of communism, according to an exit survey conducted by the PBS DGA polling institute.

The election result means Poland will no longer have twin brothers holding the two highest offices; Jaroslaw Kaczynski's brother, Lech Kaczynski, will remain the country's president with a term lasting until 2010. The 58-year-olds are former child movie stars who as adults became activists with the Solidarity trade union movement that helped topple communism in 1989.

Both Tusk and Kaczynski favor good relations with the United States, but Tusk argues Poland has not gotten enough from its close ties with Washington and wants the country's 900-strong detachment in Iraq to come home. He also says Poland should drive a tough bargain in return for hosting a missile defense base.

It is a stinging defeat for Kaczynski, whose socially conservative party was elected two years ago and has since been criticized for its assertive approach to the EU and efforts to purge former communists from positions of influence.

Tusk, the favorite to become the next prime minister, said the election showed that Poles want to focus on the economic opportunities presented by the country's membership in the EU, which Poland joined in 2004.

''It is Civic Platform's intention to make Poles feel much better in their own country than they have felt so far,'' Tusk told cheering supporters late Sunday. ''We are going to do huge work and we will do it well. You have the right to rejoice today.''

Kaczynski had sought the elections two years ahead of schedule after his party could not overcome bickering with the two smaller parties it needed to form a majority.

He has clashed with other EU countries over a new treaty to govern how the union makes decisions, demanding more say for Poland. He is also at odds with the EU over environmental protection, government backing for Polish firms, and the death penalty, which Poland does not have but Kaczynski supports.

The country's deployment of soldiers to Iraq has been extended through the end of the year by the current government, but Kaczynski has suggested it could be extended again. Tusk's party, on the other hand, wants the troops to come home, although some party officials have said that could take as long as until the end of 2008.

Tusk's party also calls for additional security guarantees for Poland such as the U.S. Patriot short-range anti-missile and anti-aircraft system, and suggests Kaczynski has failed to win rewards such as visa-free travel for Poles to the United States.

Both Kaczynski and Tusk began their political careers as anti-communist dissidents in the Solidarity movement, which paved the way for the fall of communism in 1989. Today, however, they part ways on how to deal with the ex-communists who were once their enemies.

Kaczynski favors a belated purge of ex-communists and their secret collaborators from public life -- a reckoning purposely avoided in the peaceful transition of power. He maintains that the ex-communists continue to wield undue influence. But a court overturned his legislation to have up to 700,000 people, including journalists and teachers, screened for collaboration.

Tusk's party opposes that kind of reckoning, saying that Poland should not divert its attention from the new economic opportunities presented since the country joined the EU in 2004.

------

Associated Press writers Monika Scislowska and Jan Sliva contributed to this report.

Schwarzenegger urges Republicans to seize centre
By Matthew Garrahan in Los Angeles
Published: October 21 2007 22:04 | Last updated: October 21 2007 22:04
Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of California, has urged Republican presidential candidates to capture the political centre ground ahead of next year’s election by focusing on healthcare reform and education.

As the campaign has unfolded, leading candidates have drifted to the right to win support from social conservatives.

But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Schwarzenegger said the party’s candidates were “missing out on something” because televised debates had been dominated by questions about gay marriage, abortion and immigration.

Mr Schwarzenegger said candidates should challenge the questions they were asked in the debates. “Someone has to say: ‘We’ve talked enough about immigration, now I want to talk about healthcare reform’.” The candidates had to “move the agenda”, he said.

Shifting the debates to centre-ground topics would be a positive move, he added. “Being somewhat in the centre?.?.?.?is not a detriment. If you sell [your ideas] well and if you explain it well, that’s what leadership is all about, bringing people along.”

The California governor was one of his party’s few successes in last year’s mid-term elections, winning a second term in spite of Republicans losing control of the US Senate and Congress.

His popularity in California, an overwhelmingly liberal state, has surged as he has embraced policies more commonly associated with the Democrats. He has implemented new climate-change legislation and proposed sweeping reform to the state’s health insurance system.

His “post-partisan” stance on these issues was justified by the mandate he won, he said. “I feel because I have good approval ratings, and because I won a Democrat state with 57 per cent of the votes, that?.?.?.?I can get people to cross party lines.

“Every decision has to based on what is the best for the people, how can I serve the people, rather than how can I serve my party.”

He said he would welcome a presidential bid from Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, who is considering standing as an independent candidate in next year’s election.

Mr Bloomberg was a “miracle worker” who transcended party lines in running New York, a Democrat party stronghold, Mr Schwarzenegger said.

Mr Bloomberg, elected mayor on a Republican ticket, recently rescinded his party membership, sparking talk he was considering a tilt at the presidency.

Rightists seen winning biggest share in Swiss vote

By Tom Armitage Reuters - Saturday, October 20 11:25 pm
ZURICH (Reuters) - The right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP) is set to consolidate its position as the alpine nation's most popular grouping in a parliamentary election on Sunday, outstripping its rivals after a provocative campaign.

Polling booths in Switzerland are due to close around midday (11 a.m. British time). A large proportion of Swiss ballots are cast by mail in advance of election day. The first estimated national result is due at around 1900 local time (6 p.m. British time).

According to the last opinion poll conducted before the election, the People's Party are expected to win 27.3 percent of the vote, a slight increase over 2003 when they raced to the top of the polls amid accusations of xenophobia.

The SVP has again run a controversial campaign calling for the extradition of foreigners who commit serious crimes. It has been criticised by opponents and has ruffled the usually smooth waters of Switzerland's consensus-based politics.

Opposition to the SVP's campaign, which used posters calling for the "black sheep" of Swiss society to be booted out, spilled over into a rare outburst of violence on the streets of Berne earlier this month when police and left-wing activists clashed.

The SVP's nearest rivals, the Social Democrats, are expected to take around 21.7 percent of the vote, a decline from 2003, with the Christian Democrats seen winning 15.4 percent and the Free Democrats on 15.5 percent.

PROGRESS FOR GREENS?

Pollsters Gfs.bern said in their last survey that the true winners of the election would be the Green party, whose share of the vote is expected to rise by 2.5 percent to 10 percent amid concerns about the environment and climate change.

The country's approximately 4.5 million voters cast their ballots to fill 200 seats in the National Council, the lower house, on a proportional basis. They also elect 46 cantonal representatives to the Council of States, the upper house.

Analysts do not rule out the SVP and its pugnacious leader Christoph Blocher using its showing in Sunday's election to justify calls for a change in the composition of the Federal Council, the seven-seat National Executive.

This would upset the so-called "magic formula" which in the past has given the three largest parties two seats each, with one for the smallest. This has traditionally ensured decisions are made by consensus.

Those with two seats on the Council, which is elected by parliament, are the SVP, the Social Democrats and the Free Democrats. The Christian Democrats have one seat.

Cheney: US will not let Iran go nuclear
By MATTHEW BARAKAT, Associated Press Writer2 hours, 10 minutes ago
The United States and other nations will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, Vice President Dick Cheney said Sunday.

"Our country, and the entire international community, cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions," Cheney said in a speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Studies.

He said Iran's efforts to pursue technology that would allow them to build a nuclear weapon are obvious and that "the regime continues to practice delay and deceit in an obvious effort to buy time."

If Iran continues on its current course, Cheney said the U.S. and other nations are "prepared to impose serious consequences." The vice president made no specific reference to military action.

"We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon," he said.

Cheney's words seemed to only escalate the U.S. rhetoric against Iran over the past several days, including President Bush's warning that a nuclear Iran could lead to "World War III."

Cheney said the ultimate goal of the Iranian leadership is to establish itself as the hegemonic force in the Middle East and undermine a free Shiite-majority Iraq as a rival for influence in the Muslim world.

Iran's government seeks "to keep Iraq in a state of weakness to ensure Baghdad does not pose a threat to Tehran," Cheney said.

While he was critical of that government and President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, he offered praise and words of solidarity to the Iranian people. Iran "is a place of unlimited potential ... and it has the right to be free of tyranny," Cheney said.

Cheney accused of Iran of having a direct role in the deaths of U.S. soldiers in Iraq and said the government has "solidified its grip on the country" since coming to power in 1979.

The U.S. and some allies accuse Iran of secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons and have demanded it halt uranium enrichment, an important step in the production of atomic weapons. Oil-rich Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes including generating electricity.

At a news conference Wednesday, Bush suggested that if Iran obtained nuclear weapons, it could lead to a new world war.

"I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them (Iran) from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon," Bush said.

Bush's spokeswoman later said the president was making not making any war plans but rather "a rhetorical point."

Also, on Thursday, the top officer in the U.S. military said the U.S. has the resources to attack Iran if needed despite the strains of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Navy Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said striking Iran is a last resort, and the focus now on diplomacy to stem Iran's nuclear ambitions, but "there is more than enough reserve to respond" militarily if need be.

The Bush administration's intentions toward Iran have been the subject of debate in Congress.

Last month the Senate approved a resolution urging the State Department to label Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization.

Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., said he feared the measure could be interpreted as authorizing a military strike in Iran, calling it Cheney's "fondest pipe dream."