From The Sunday Times
September 23, 2007
Israelis seized nuclear material in Syrian raid
Uzi Mahnaimi and Sarah Baxter


Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem.

The attack was launched with American approval on September 6 after Washington was shown evidence the material was nuclear related, the well-placed sources say.

They confirmed that samples taken from Syria for testing had been identified as North Korean. This raised fears that Syria might have joined North Korea and Iran in seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

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Israeli special forces had been gathering intelligence for several months in Syria, according to Israeli sources. They located the nuclear material at a compound near Dayr az-Zwar in the north.

Evidence that North Korean personnel were at the site is said to have been shared with President George W Bush over the summer. A senior American source said the administration sought proof of nuclear-related activities before giving the attack its blessing.

Diplomats in North Korea and China believe a number of North Koreans were killed in the strike, based on reports reaching Asian governments about conversations between Chinese and North Korean officials.

Syrian officials flew to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, last week, reinforcing the view that the two nations were coordinating their response.

Unedited thoughts by:

Dan Hare

Much has been talked about with regards to Iran and its nuclear capabilities. The obvious fear, from a ‘non Iranian’ point of view is that it puts the capability of ‘Armageddon’ into the hands of a nutjob like Ahmedinnejad, the big mouth president of Iran who continues to rally that extreme portion of the iranian population about the destruction of the west and specifically Israel.

From the Iranian point of view, the acquisition of nuclear capability is more about parity than anything else. Once the Iranian theocracy controls nuclear weapons, they better insure themselves against attack from outside forces, such as the USA and Israel, and allows them to keep their platform of anti western sentiment which is about the only way they are able to maintain control with the Iranian populace. The reality is that the Iranian theocracy is a politically and economically bankrupt state. Over 70% of its population is under the age of 35 with a growing resentment toward the repressive control of its theocratically ruled country. It’s economy is in such shambles that it looses hundreds of thousands of its youth, who go elsewhere for opportunity. Many go to progressive Dubai.

The birthrate is down in Iran. There is an intuitive knowing when women choose not to increase their families because of the prospects of providing for their families. My sense is that the highly educated Iranian / Persian women don’t see a future in this country as it is ordered today. In my interview with Farhoud and Mitra Rastegard’s both Iranian immigrants to this country, I learned that a very high percentage of women are turning to prostitution for survival. Of course the Mullah’s have twisted Islamic law to allow for a one day ‘marriage’ which allows a man his pleasure and to keep his Islamic piousness, when in reality it is a think coverage for pimping its women in the name of its religion.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, recently said in a speech that American needs to leverage soft tools in its arsenals with great effect. Specifically getting the narrative of the short comings of the Iranian theocracy. This is an area, the west falls behind in large dose compared to the Jihadist who somehow leverage world opinion with its loose leaf infrastructure and ability to strike quickly with any propaganda fuel its gets a hold of.

My sense is if a nuclear bomb goes on and effects western interest or population, all bets are off and pandora’s box is open.

The world was horrified when Pakistan obtained nuclear weapons. It was ‘assured that India and Pakistan’ would certainly go to war and use its nuclear capacity. Bear in mind that Pakistan has more sympathy toward the Sunni Salafi or ‘Binladenism’, which is the true instigator of exporting world wide terror attacks. Iran is a Shia faction, which represents only 10% of the Muslim world and is more interested in created its role as the middle eastern hegemon utlitizing proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shia militia in Iraq to enhance its influence. They are very different in their orientation. Yes, its true that in some capacities the Shia and Sunni work together, but ONLY when they have a hated enemy like the USA who control their territory.

It is also interesting to note that traditionally Islam has been more sympathetic
to Christians and Jews, because they are ‘people of the book’, meaning they
are more monotheist, than the Hindu’s of India who are more of a pantheistic
religion. In theory the Hindu’s are more in line for justifiable ‘death’ as infidels
than the monotheist Christian’s or Jews from a classic Islamic point of view.

A few years back, India and Pakistan were in a highly emotional dispute, If I recall correctly, it was about the disputed territory of Kashmer. As with North and South Korea, state of alerts escalated and NASA like speeds. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell did a Kissinger like shuttle diplomacy to calm the nerves of both parties as the sabers rattled. The message that calmed both sides down was simple. It essentially was the argument that if one side or both bombed the other, it would set the economy back at least 20 years. Quickly, the rhetoric subsided and tensions decreased quickly.

To me the reality is that the power of globalism, which I define as economic connectivity, is far greater that the nihlism of BinLadenism and the small minority of suicide bombers who get all the headline news. The notion that the powerful tribal sheiks, who control their tribal culture, want death over life, is simply wrong. They are as greedy and even more than many in our own congress and senate in their desire to line their pockets and powerbase and lifestyle. When one is able to look in the mirror at the conduct of the US government and talks about corruption, I have to laugh and the hypocracy of it all.

The reality is that all cultures have their own power bases and they much be leveraged for change.
My sense is that the carrot –accountability with a stick in the way background is the way of warfare in the future. The subtely of seducing or leveraging these forces is something we need to get much better at. Our marines have done a good job in Al Anbar in its own delicate operation. However the reality is that we need to utilize societal transformation with the education of women, the economic connectiveness, to the global economy is the most effective precursor to democracy or a pluralistic society.

So if we can learn anything from the Iraq experience, where we, the USA, completely misread the culture, made virtually every mistake and bureaucratic bungling possible, those who talk of ‘bombing the hell out of Iran’ might take note. The failed theocratic powers that be would love nothing more for the USA or Israel to bomb Iran. This is one of the few hopes they have of maintaining power for the next decade or so. An attack against this highly nationalistic country would turn our greatest asset, the 70% youth population with favorable sentiments towards the west, into very unfavorable sentiments.

I believe Iran is so ripe for a revolution. In fact some 6 months ago or there abouts, I had a credible source who suggested that a plan was in place which would facilitate an overthrow with both segment of the Iranian government and also the Iranian military.

If we facilitate the soft arsenal and proxy war from within the Iranian population, we will be much more effective than bombing Iran and loosing our natural allies from the Persian people who are tired of its oppressive rulers and their strict interpretation of Islam forced on its people.

Our government, in the USA, desparately needs to re-engineer and re-think its use of enormously powerful tools such as myspace, and like social marketing tools which the West uses quite successful to propel marketing messages into our markets. Its cheaper and more effective if we can just get our bureaucrats to think market, not institutions on this one. Or perhaps some incentive to co-op both.

Below is article that inspired this blog note.

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From The Sunday Times
September 23, 2007

Sarah Baxter, Washington

Project Checkmate, a successor to the group that planned the 1991 Gulf War’s air campaign, was quietly reestablished at the Pentagon in June.

It reports directly to General Michael Moseley, the US Air Force chief, and consists of 20-30 top air force officers and defence and cyberspace experts with ready access to the White House, the CIA and other intelligence agencies.

Related Links
The men planning America's next air war
Detailed contingency planning for a possible attack on Iran has been carried out for more than two years by Centcom (US central command), according to defence sources.

Checkmate’s job is to add a dash of brilliance to Air Force thinking by countering the military’s tendency to “fight the last war” and by providing innovative strategies for warfighting and assessing future needs for air, space and cyberwarfare.

It is led by Brigadier-General Lawrence “Stutz” Stutzriem, who is considered one of the brightest air force generals. He is assisted by Dr Lani Kass, a former Israeli military officer and expert on cyberwarfare.

The failure of United Nations sanctions to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which Tehran claims are peaceful, is giving rise to an intense debate about the likelihood of military strikes.

Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, said last week that it was “necessary to prepare for the worst . . . and the worst is war”. He later qualified his remarks, saying he wanted to avoid that outcome.

France has joined America in pushing for a tough third sanctions resolution against Iran at the UN security council but is meeting strong resistance from China and Russia. Britain has been doing its best to bridge the gap, but it is increasingly likely that new sanctions will be implemented by a US-led “coalition of the willing”.

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who arrives in New York for the United Nations general assembly today, has been forced to abandon plans to visit ground zero, where the World Trade Center stood until the September 11 attacks of 2001. Politicians from President George W Bush to Senator Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner in the 2008 race for the White House, were outraged by the prospect of a visit to New York’s most venerated site by a “state sponsor” of terrorism.

Bush still hopes to isolate Iran diplomatically, but believes the regime is moving steadily closer to obtaining nuclear weapons while the security council bickers.

The US president faces strong opposition to military action, however, within his own joint chiefs of staff. “None of them think it is a good idea, but they will do it if they are told to,” said a senior defence source.

General John Abizaid, the former Centcom commander, said last week: “Every effort should be made to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but failing that, the world could live with a nuclear-armed Iran.”

Critics fear Abizaid has lost sight of Iran’s potential to arm militant groups such as Hezbollah with nuclear weapons. “You can deter Iran, but there is no strategy against nuclear terrorism,” said the retired air force Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney of the Iran policy committee.

“There is no question that we can take out Iran. The problem is the follow-on, the velvet revolution that needs to be created so the Iranian people know it’s not aimed at them, but at the Iranian regime.”

Checkmate’s freethinking mission is “to provide planning inputs to warfighters that are strategically, operationally and tactically sound, logistically supportable and politically feasible”. Its remit is not specific to one country, according to defence sources, but its forward planning is thought relevant to any future air war against Iranian nuclear and military sites. It is also looking at possible threats from China and North Korea.

Checkmate was formed in the 1970s to counter Soviet threats but fell into disuse in the 1980s. It was revived under Colonel John Warden and was responsible for drawing up plans for the crushing air blitz against Saddam Hussein at the opening of the first Gulf war.

Warden told The Sunday Times: “When Saddam invaded Kuwait, we had access to unlimited numbers of people with expertise, including all the intelligence agencies, and were able to be significantly more agile than Centcom.”

He believes that Checkmate’s role is to develop the necessary expertise so that “if somebody says Iran, it says: ‘here is what you need to think about’. Here are the objectives, here are the risks, here is what it will cost, here are the numbers of planes we will lose, here is how the war is going to end and here is what the peace will look like”.

Warden added: “The Centcoms of this world are executional – they don’t have the staff, the expertise or the responsibility to do the thinking that is needed before a country makes the decision to go to war. War planning is not just about bombs, airplanes and sailing boats.”

From The Sunday Times
September 23, 2007
Secret US air force team to perfect plan for Iran strike

Sarah Baxter, Washington


THE United States Air Force has set up a highly confidential strategic planning group tasked with “fighting the next war” as tensions rise with Iran.

Project Checkmate, a successor to the group that planned the 1991 Gulf War’s air campaign, was quietly reestablished at the Pentagon in June.

It reports directly to General Michael Moseley, the US Air Force chief, and consists of 20-30 top air force officers and defence and cyberspace experts with ready access to the White House, the CIA and other intelligence agencies.

Related Links
The men planning America's next air war
Detailed contingency planning for a possible attack on Iran has been carried out for more than two years by Centcom (US central command), according to defence sources.

Checkmate’s job is to add a dash of brilliance to Air Force thinking by countering the military’s tendency to “fight the last war” and by providing innovative strategies for warfighting and assessing future needs for air, space and cyberwarfare.

It is led by Brigadier-General Lawrence “Stutz” Stutzriem, who is considered one of the brightest air force generals. He is assisted by Dr Lani Kass, a former Israeli military officer and expert on cyberwarfare.

The failure of United Nations sanctions to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which Tehran claims are peaceful, is giving rise to an intense debate about the likelihood of military strikes.

Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, said last week that it was “necessary to prepare for the worst . . . and the worst is war”. He later qualified his remarks, saying he wanted to avoid that outcome.

France has joined America in pushing for a tough third sanctions resolution against Iran at the UN security council but is meeting strong resistance from China and Russia. Britain has been doing its best to bridge the gap, but it is increasingly likely that new sanctions will be implemented by a US-led “coalition of the willing”.

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who arrives in New York for the United Nations general assembly today, has been forced to abandon plans to visit ground zero, where the World Trade Center stood until the September 11 attacks of 2001. Politicians from President George W Bush to Senator Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner in the 2008 race for the White House, were outraged by the prospect of a visit to New York’s most venerated site by a “state sponsor” of terrorism.

Bush still hopes to isolate Iran diplomatically, but believes the regime is moving steadily closer to obtaining nuclear weapons while the security council bickers.

The US president faces strong opposition to military action, however, within his own joint chiefs of staff. “None of them think it is a good idea, but they will do it if they are told to,” said a senior defence source.

General John Abizaid, the former Centcom commander, said last week: “Every effort should be made to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but failing that, the world could live with a nuclear-armed Iran.”

Critics fear Abizaid has lost sight of Iran’s potential to arm militant groups such as Hezbollah with nuclear weapons. “You can deter Iran, but there is no strategy against nuclear terrorism,” said the retired air force Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney of the Iran policy committee.

“There is no question that we can take out Iran. The problem is the follow-on, the velvet revolution that needs to be created so the Iranian people know it’s not aimed at them, but at the Iranian regime.”

Checkmate’s freethinking mission is “to provide planning inputs to warfighters that are strategically, operationally and tactically sound, logistically supportable and politically feasible”. Its remit is not specific to one country, according to defence sources, but its forward planning is thought relevant to any future air war against Iranian nuclear and military sites. It is also looking at possible threats from China and North Korea.

Checkmate was formed in the 1970s to counter Soviet threats but fell into disuse in the 1980s. It was revived under Colonel John Warden and was responsible for drawing up plans for the crushing air blitz against Saddam Hussein at the opening of the first Gulf war.

Warden told The Sunday Times: “When Saddam invaded Kuwait, we had access to unlimited numbers of people with expertise, including all the intelligence agencies, and were able to be significantly more agile than Centcom.”

He believes that Checkmate’s role is to develop the necessary expertise so that “if somebody says Iran, it says: ‘here is what you need to think about’. Here are the objectives, here are the risks, here is what it will cost, here are the numbers of planes we will lose, here is how the war is going to end and here is what the peace will look like”.

Warden added: “The Centcoms of this world are executional – they don’t have the staff, the expertise or the responsibility to do the thinking that is needed before a country makes the decision to go to war. War planning is not just about bombs, airplanes and sailing boats.”

Tourism
Few small nations in the world offer so much to visitors as Georgia. Although Georgia is only the size of Switzerland, it boasts the highest mountains in Europe, truly fabulous scenery, more indigenous grape varieties than anywhere else and architectural marvels - stone watch-towers in the mountains and carved wooden balconies, richly frescoed churches and art nouveau in the towns. Combine this with a Mediterranean climate and legendary Georgian hospitality, and you have a unique travel destination.
Georgia has always been an important tourist destination for adventurers, but also for lovers of high culture - art, wine, the distinct Caucasus cuisine, breath-taking traditional dance and unique polyphonic male choirs. We are also known for our bio-diversity, which is now protected in 24 nature reserves and national parks - recently opened up to visitors to experience the untouched beauty of Georgia's diverse landscapes. There are over 12,000 historical and cultural monuments in Georgia, four listed by UNESCO as cultural heritage sites, 103 resorts and 182 resort places situated in different climatic zones, and more than 2000 mineral springs. These encompass ski resorts, sandy beach resorts on the Black Sea coast, and health spas where treatment facilities make use of natural mineral waters from local springs.
Georgia offers diverse nature, undisturbed endemic Flora and Fauna, history, architecture and archaeology, culture, folklore and arts, hospitality. Therefore, Georgia is a country with high potential of cultural - Exploratory tourism, Adventure Tourism, Eco-tourism, Leisure and Recreation, Agro Tourism, Cuisine and Wine Tourism.
Impact of Government policy - With a new visa policy and improving infrastructure, combined with a new, firm commitment to safety, Georgia is ready to welcome investors, travelers and explorers. Georgia is a place where interesting things are happening - things that people from around the world want to come and see.
Simplification of Visa Issuing Procedures - There is no visa requirement for nationals of Israel, Japan, Canada, United States of America and members of European Union countries. Also for CIS nationals, except citizens of the Russian Federation and Turkmenistan, a visa is not required. Nationalities able to enter Georgia without a visa are allowed to stay for 90 days in Georgia. Passengers on cruise ships who stay in Georgia for less than 72 hours do not require visas either.
Basic Infrastructure Development - Roads and highways, energy systems and water supply systems are now developing rapidly, with supportive results for the tourism business. Tbilisi and Batumi are serviced by new modern airports approved for full membership in ECAC (European Civil Aviation Conference), with direct flights to 32 cities. Currently two Marriott hotels and one Sheraton hotel provide luxury accommodation in Tbilisi, while an SAS Radisson hotel is under construction, and Hyatt, Accor and Hilton hotels are scheduled for construction.
Taxation - According to the existing Tax Code, enacted in January 2005, tour operators' incoming tourist revenue falls into the category of exports and is therefore free of VAT.
Ongoing Project:
- Development and Operation of Shaori Recreation Zone
- Land use master plan of Shaori Tourist-Recreational Zone

September 23, 2007
A Son Radiates His Own Light in His Father’s Libya

By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
CYRENE, Libya — The thin man with a shaved head smiled slightly as he made his way to a podium erected amid Greek ruins, a serious presence in a boisterous crowd that gathered last week to celebrate plans for an eco-development region near this town in the deserts of eastern Libya.

In a skullcap and white tunic with a gold-trimmed vest, the man talked slowly, deliberately, even a bit nervously, presenting data in English about desertification, oil and carbon emissions. He corrected even the smallest grammatical errors in the printed speech he was reading.

“Climate change is a global problem, but global solutions start with local solutions,” he said in faintly accented English.

Societies, he said, should be built in a way that allowed them to reduce greenhouse gases. “The day will come when oil will run out, and if we wait for that it will be too late,” he said.

The man — part scholar, part monk, part model, part policy wonk — was Saif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, the powerful 33-year-old son of Libya’s extroverted and impulsive president, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. He is, in short, the un-Qaddafi.

The younger Qaddafi is in the final stages of his Ph.D. program in governance at the London School of Economics, and his meticulous training showed itself in Cyrene, a rare appearance for him at a large public event. He reeled off statistics about the rate of desertification and calculations of the tens of thousands of jobs that could be created in fisheries, architecture and ecotourism in the region with his project.

Speaking with a small group of journalists after his presentation, he listened carefully to questions in Arabic and English, thinking before each answer. Although his handlers had announced that journalists should confine their questions to the ecotourism project, the queries inevitably got broader, having not been screened in advance.

“What about democracy in Libya?” someone asked.

“Of course we are going toward more democracy,” Mr. Qaddafi said carefully. “But this project is not about democracy.”

In recent years — and especially in the past few months — he has been an up-and-coming force in Libyan politics, and the country’s unofficial liaison with the West. His Qaddafi Foundation is brokering countless commercial deals and projects as Libya emerges from years of ostracism. He has expressed a degree of openness about the country’s problems that other Libyans — less connected and more nationalistic — dare not utter.

“He’s put himself forward as someone who represents the new generation in Libya and who also represents his father,” said George Joffe, an expert on the region at Cambridge University. “He’s the most likely potential leader — no one else is better positioned — but he’s a work in progress, and for the moment it’s not at all clear that he has the control to lead, to be a successor.”

In addition to the environmental project, Mr. Qaddafi helped broker the release of six foreign medical workers who had been sentenced to death in Libya, and he has promised to privatize one of Libya’s cellphone companies.

He emerged on the world stage in 2000, when he helped negotiate the release of hostages taken by Islamic terrorists at a Philippine diving resort. He has spoken out against revolutionary committees, which exist in schools, businesses and offices to enforce political orthodoxy.

Perhaps as a sign of his growing importance, his security detail has increased in the past year, say those who know him.

“He doesn’t have an official position, but it’s clear he has influence and power — Saif is right in the heart of it all,” said Rajeev Singh-Molares of the business consultancy the Monitor Group in London. He has advised Mr. Qaddafi for three years, working on a strategy for economic development. Michael E. Porter, a Harvard Business School professor, also serves as a consultant for Mr. Qaddafi.

Westerners who have worked with him say he is smart, well read and quick to pick up the telephone to call the prime minister or his father. But “he understands that there are red lines that he cannot cross,” said an associate who asked to speak anonymously.

The Qaddafi Foundation he runs “was certainly helpful in the nurses’ case,” said Richard J. Roberts, who led a group of Nobel Prize winners in petitioning Libya for the release of the medical workers, five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor. (Dr. Roberts is a molecular biologist who was awarded his Nobel in 1993.) “At this point one would like to believe the best about them.”

Mr. Qaddafi has recently made some extraordinary admissions: he said that the medical workers were tortured with electricity while in prison and that the infection of children with the virus that causes AIDS in Benghazi resulted from poor sanitary conditions at the city’s hospital and was not — as his father and the prosecutors contended — a plot by the foreign workers to infect them.

Also this year, in a televised speech, he said Libya should adopt a proper constitution that would guarantee freedom of the press. He has opened two private newspapers, and this summer he addressed a gathering of more than 100,000 young Libyans.

He is the president’s second-born son, the first child of Colonel Qaddafi’s second wife, Safiyya. His siblings include Muhammad, a businessman; Saadi, a professional soccer player; and Aysha, his sister, who is a lawyer.

Mr. Qaddafi is, experts say, clearly an emerging force for liberalization. But his country has a long way to go, and one free-thinking, Western-educated technocrat may not make a difference. Libya is ranked the third most repressive economy in the world by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative research group in the United States.

“He is eager for reform and understands the need for Libya to diversify its economy,” said Mr. Singh-Molares of the Monitor Group. “In that sense he’s a visionary leader. He wants to make Libya something special. But the capacity of Libya to keep up with his vision is limited at this point.”

It is hard to gauge how much influence he wields in Tripoli and whether he is powerful enough to define policy. “It is difficult to know just how independently the Qaddafi Foundation operates,” said Dr. Roberts, who went to Tripoli to plead the foreign medical workers’ case.

Also, it is difficult to know how popular this technocrat with an M.B.A. from Vienna is in Libya.

“He’s popular with the young elite because they can see the opportunities,” said Mr. Joffe of Cambridge. “But he’s unpopular with political Islam.”