Iraq Rebuilding Successes Don't Get Enough 'Ink,' U.S. General Says
By Gerry J. Gilmore
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, March 29, 2007 – Stories of violence are overshadowing the many successes achieved by U.S., coalition and Iraqi rebuilding efforts in Baghdad and other areas of the country, a senior U.S. military engineer said today.

"You can't pick up a newspaper or turn on television these days without seeing violence every day in Iraq," Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh, commanding general of the Army Corps of Engineers' Gulf Region Division, said to Pentagon reporters during a satellite-carried news conference from Iraq.
"What you don't see are the successes in the reconstruction program (and) how reconstruction is making a difference in the lives of everyday Iraqi people, especially here in Baghdad," Walsh pointed out.
The United States has provided nearly $22 billion for Iraq reconstruction projects, Walsh said, noting it'll likely cost between $60 billion to $80 billion to restore Iraq's worn infrastructure.
"The U.S. government and the government of Iraq are working together to yield positive, tangible reconstruction results that are significantly improving the lives of the Iraqi people," Walsh said.
Operation Law and Order, the U.S., coalition and Iraqi anti-terrorist campaign launched in mid-February, is making progress in reducing the violence in Baghdad and Anbar province, Walsh said.
However, "it will take a continued commitment and determination over the course of many months" for the anti-terror operation to succeed, he added.
Meanwhile, ongoing electrical, water treatment, sewage, road, and school reconstruction projects in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq are giving Iraqis hope for the future, the general said.
Although reconstruction work in Iraq is challenging and difficult, Walsh said, those efforts are vital to Iraq's progress toward a peaceful, democratic society.
"As citizens feel safer, conditions will be set for the resumption and improvement of basic essential services," the general said. Today, out of 2,500 projects planned for Baghdad, almost 2,000 water, sewer, medical, electrical, school and other projects have been completed, Walsh said.
He noted the completion of 28 projects totaling $24 million for police, fire, and military facilities established within Baghdad's 10 security districts as part of Operation Law and Order. Other completed reconstruction projects in Baghdad include: 21 education projects totaling $1.1 million, 24 health projects totaling $12.9 million, 20 water projects totaling $10 million, and 79 electricity projects totaling $125 million.
All of these projects improve the lives of hundreds of thousands of Baghdad's citizens, Walsh said, noting that about 30,000 Iraqis are employed in various reconstruction projects across Iraq. About 60 percent of Corps of Engineers' work contracts are performed by Iraqi companies, the general added. Since 2003, the Corps of Engineers has contracted around $8.5 billion of work for Iraq reconstruction projects, Walsh said, with another $3.5 billion earmarked for work to be completed over the next 18 months.
Walsh was joined by Ibrahim Mustafa Hussain, Baghdad's deputy mayor for technical affairs, who said ongoing reconstruction work across the city is giving residents hope for a better future.
Hussain said his office provides roads, water, sewage treatment and other public services to Baghdad's 6.5 million residents. About 75 percent of Baghdad is now served by public sewage systems, he said, noting his office is working with U.S. and coalition engineers to extend public sewage as well as water and electrical service across the municipality.
Baghdad's infrastructure suffered greatly from neglect during the 1980s, Hussain explained. But, the current reconstruction work being performed across the city will certainly improve the lives of Baghdad's citizens, he said.
"We've started a lot of projects to improve the situation in Baghdad," Hussain said. "Everybody here is optimistic that the situation will be better in the future. We hope in the future that you will see (that) Baghdad is a better city and a good city as it was before."
Walsh, too, predicted better days ahead for Baghdad's residents and all of Iraq's people.
"Iraq is a country rich in natural resources and intelligent and talented people," Walsh said. "And, I'm confident that by continuing to work with our Iraqi partners in reconstruction and focusing on essential service projects we can help build a bright future for Iraq."

Biographies:
Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh, USA

Related Sites:
Corps of Engineers Gulf Region Division

IRANIANS' GASOLINE CONSUMPTION CONTINUES TO RISE. The consumption of
heavily subsidized gasoline by Iranian drivers has reportedly risen
to record levels in recent days and is likely to have confounded
official hopes for a drop in demand by the end of the Persian year to
March 20, Radio Farda reported on March 27. The increase was likely
due to millions of car journeys undertaken in Iran during the March
20 to early April new year's holiday period. Radio Farda cited a
recent report issued by the National Iranian Oil Refining and
Distribution Company (NIORDC), affiliated with the Oil Ministry,
which showed that daily gasoline consumption in Iran exceeded 95
million liters on March 19 and 20, respectively. The report indicated
this was 25 percent higher than consumption figures for the same
period the previous year, while NIORDC officials had anticipated a
fall in consumption to a daily 70 million liters. The government is
to introduce a two-tier gasoline pricing system this year, in a bid
to cut waste and reduce costly gasoline imports. A set amount of
petrol at the pumps is expected to cost 100 tumans (just under $0.11)
a liter, up from its present cost of 80 tumans, while the government
should decide by late April how much drivers will pay for gasoline
purchased above the set amount, Radio Farda reported, citing Iranian
media. The system will reportedly work with the use of "smart cards,"
to identify users. VS

Hometown Jihad: The Return of Salah Sultan
By Patrick Poole
FrontPageMagazine.com | March 29, 2007

It was almost a year ago that I first introduced readers of FrontPage Magazine to the story of how I returned to my hometown of Hilliard, Ohio – a sleepy Columbus suburb and a longtime red-state haven – after more than a decades absence, only to quickly discover that the hometown of my youth had vanished and instead had become yet another battleground in the Global War on Terror.
This story was first presented to FrontPage readers in “Hometown Jihad,” where I recounted my finding a Muslim Brotherhood operative, Dr. Salah Sultan, living right around the corner from me and teaching out of the Islamic school, Sunrise Academy, which had set up shop during my absence in the city’s former library building. Sultan is a protégé of Yousef Al-Qaradawi, the Qatar-based spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, who the Anti-Defamation League has described as “The Theologian of Terror” for his advocacy of HAMAS suicide bombings against Israel and giving religious edicts for Muslims to fight and kill American troops overseas.

In a follow-up article, “Hometown Jihad: Blowback,” I wrote about the fallout from the publication of that first article, including how the local paper, the Columbus Dispatch, rose to the defense of Salah Sultan and Sunrise Academy. Not only did the Dispatch article ignore all of the documentation I had provided to the paper on Sultan and the Islamic school in addition to what appeared in that first article, but it went so far in its defense to characterize FrontPage Magazine (and by association, myself) as neo-Nazi propaganda tool for daring to raise the issue.

But in a strange turn of events, that Dispatch article, which airbrushed Sultan as a “moderate” Muslim, was published just days before Sultan appeared on Saudi Arabian Al-Risala TV, where he informed viewers that the US government was behind the 9/11 attacks, which he said were planned “to enable the U.S. to control and terrorize the entire world, and to get American society to agree to the war declared on terrorism,” and defending Yemeni al-Qaeda cleric Abd Al-Majid Al-Zindani, a close associate of Osama bin Laden that has been listed by the US government as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” and identified by one analyst as the “Yemeni Sheikh of Hate”. Fortunately, Sultan’s Al-Risala interview was recorded [video] by the good folks at the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), though the Dispatch offered no retraction when informed about these new statements from the man they had just days before defended as a “moderate” Muslim.

The third article in the series published back in September, “Hometown Jihad: Our Newest Citizen?” I revealed to FrontPage readers that Salah Sultan had submitted an application for US citizenship. My investigation into the numerous associations with terrorist-linked and terror-justifying organizations launched a congressional inquiry led by our local representative, Congresswoman Deborah Pryce. According to my sources, that inquiry is still open and no determination has been made on Sultan’s citizenship application while Department of Homeland Security officials look at Sultan’s role in several organizations led by Qaradawi, including the European Council for Fatwa and Research and the International Association of Muslim Scholars, both of which have issued religious rulings justifying attacks against American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan and terrorist activities against Israel; as well as his association with the Muslim World League, the Saudi-backed Wahhabi charity established in North America by Osama bin Laden’s brother-in-law, which has been cited by US authorities as financing Hamas and six terrorist training camps in Afghanistan prior to 9/11.

After that last article, and with his US citizenship application still pending, Sultan picked up and moved his family to Bahrain, though still maintaining his US residence in Hilliard. Since that time, not much has been heard from my neighbor. That was until last week when I discovered that Sultan was now one of the US political analysts for the Muslim Brotherhood, the Egyptian-based organizational, ideological and financial font of virtually every Islamic terrorist organization in the world, including Al-Qaeda.

In an article posted on the official website of the Muslim Brotherhood, Ikhwanweb.com, “US Islamic Center: Democrats More Tolerant Towards Muslims,” dated just two days after the November elections, Salah Sultan offers an exclusive interview to the Brotherhood and offers his take on the US election results.

Interviewed by a Muslim Brotherhood press official, Saeed Abbady, Sultan hails the victory of Democrats over Republicans and predicts that the rise of the Democrats in Congress “will work in favor of Muslims inside and outside of the US.” Among the changes he says he hopes to see are the reversal of “freedom restricting laws [that] have defied principles on which the America [sic] was founded.”

In particular, he decries that “the Islamic centers and establishments have been affected by policies restricting civil liberties, making them under ongoing siege and surveillance.” Perhaps Sultan has in mind the investigations into the now-defunct Islamic Association of Palestine (IAP), the primary U.S.-based front group for the terrorist organization and Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood affiliate, HAMAS. In 1999, Sultan appeared at an IAP fundraiser, where he expressed his hope that all Muslim children would dream of martyrdom for the Palestinian cause: “I want every child to sleep on the wound of Palestine and the actions of martyrdom, just like that mother in the country whose son wrote to her that they are to meet in Paradise.” His comments were recorded in Rita Katz’s 2003 book, Terrorist Hunter.

In his political analysis for the Muslim Brotherhood, Sultan predicted that “Democrats will expose the financial corruption in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan”, and expressed his hope that the Democratic congressional victory would shift US foreign policy against “the US launched unjustified war in Iraq.”

But one change he lamented that the victory of Democrats would not portend was a shift in US foreign policy with regards to the Palestinians. The reason – the international Zionist conspiracy:

He attributed this unchanged policy toward the Palestinian cause to the omnipresence of the Jewish lobby and their infiltration of both parties, calling on Muslims to have a strong and effective lobby by which they can press the US administration to acknowledge their demands.

FrontPage readers who have been following this story will recall that this is hardly the first time that Sultan has been recorded identifying an international Zionist conspiracy or making outright anti-Jewish remarks. In that same 1999 IAP speech cited above, Sultan went on a tirade that could be taken straight from the pages of the anti-Semitic book, Protocols of the Elders of Zion:

What does "the Cause" mean to you? And what does it mean to your children?... How much do they know about these tragedies? Did we mention to them that the Children of Zion over there cut open the wombs of mothers. As Khalid M. Khalid mentioned in 1992 when he visited Shamir and saw on his desk a strange ashtray. He asked him, "What strange ashtray is this?" Shamir told him that this was the skull of an embryo. The skull of an embryo? An Israeli soldier opened the womb of a Palestinian mother, took out the embryo, cut off his head, and gave it to him as a present. He gave it to him as a present! This is the method of the Jews. Killing a Muslim or any other non-Jew does not matter to them. Because their motto is, "The gentiles mean nothing to us." This is what the text of the Talmud says: "If you come across a non-Jew kill him!"

Concluding his post-election analysis, Sultan assured that one of the beneficiaries of the Democratic victory would be the Muslim Brotherhood itself, which is currently waging a widespread media campaign through its US supporters to recast the image of the Brotherhood as a “moderate” Islamist organization and pushing for the US government to begin to engage with the terror-linked group.

There is good cause for Salah Sultan to follow US policy towards the Muslim Brotherhood, not just because of the prominent role that his mentor, Yousef Al-Qaradawi, plays in the international organization. For years, Sultan’s work in the US has been supported by the Muslim Brotherhood’s extensive network in North America. One of his first positions upon arriving in America was as the Director of Department of Islamic Research and Studies for the Muslim American Society (MAS), which the Chicago Tribune identified as one of the primary US-based front groups for the Muslim Brotherhood in a detailed 2004 investigation. Sultan’s resume states that in addition to his position, he was also a member of MAS’s Board of Directors from 2000-2004. (Readers should also consult Daveed Gartenstein-Ross’ article, “MAS’s Muslim Brotherhood Problem.”)

Sultan also served as President of the Islamic American University, which developed as a project of the MAS. As head of the institution, Sultan appointed his mentor Qaradawi (whom he affectionately calls “our great scholar”) as chairman of the board of the institution, even though Qaradawi had already been designated by the US government as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” in 1999 and is banned from entering the country. More recently, until the publication of my Hometown Jihad series, Sultan operated his American Center for Islamic Research out of the local Islamic school, Sunrise Academy, which is itself a wholly-owned outreach of the local MAS affiliate, the Islamic Society of Greater Columbus. This gives us some indication of how dependent Sultan has been on the Muslim Brotherhood network for his operations here in the US.

After Salah Sultan retreated to Bahrain after the publication of the third installment in my “Hometown Jihad” exposé, undoubtedly prompted by the congressional inquiry into his citizenship application following up on my investigation, I suspected that we might never hear from my neighbor again. With that congressional inquiry in mind, it is no wonder that he took such personal interest in the US elections and the change in congressional leadership that occurred in its wake, as evidenced by his interview.

But in my wildest imagination I never could have anticipated that after so much energy had been expended previously by his defenders to dismiss the connections between himself, Qaradawi and the Muslim Brotherhood, which included their vigorous attempts to label FrontPage Magazine and myself as Islamophobic bigots and neo-Nazis, that Sultan would reappear just two months later as the US political analyst for the Muslim Brotherhood on their own official website. (That astounding discovery notwithstanding, I will not hold my breath for an apology from the Columbus Dispatch, the staff of Sunrise Academy and the officials of the Interfaith Association of Central Ohio, who have gone to great lengths to publicly besmirch FrontPage and myself for having the audacity to reveal what is now plainly evident.)

It very well may be the case that the recent Democratic electoral victory has emboldened Islamic radicals like Sultan, hoping that their Democratic Party protectors can shield them from scrutiny and the atmosphere “siege and surveillance” that Sultan loudly protests. For my part, however, the shift in political winds in Washington DC and the resurgence of Sultan’s Democratic Party allies in Congress will not prevent me from continuing to do my part to investigate and expose the workings of the global jihad right here in America, because there is too much at stake for me, my family and my community.

As I reported last year, my hometown of Hilliard, Ohio, is on the frontlines of the Global War on Terror, as are hundreds and thousands of cities and towns all across America. Sadly, few recognize this reality. Since the establishment media in our area is held captive by longstanding political and ideological ties that prevent them from offering honest and unbiased assessments of the activity of radical Islamists, it is certain that this story will never be accurately told in the pages of the Columbus Dispatch or the local television news stations. It is only through free and independent media outlets, such as FrontPage Magazine and talk radio, that this story can be told.

I readily admit that my tale of Hometown Jihad is hardly unique. And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that my work has relied heavily on courageous journalists and activists – Christians, Jews, Muslims, atheists, and of all stripes alike – that that have been warning us of this threat long before I became aware of it, many of whom have regularly appeared, and continue to appear, here at FrontPage. As long as there are brave souls willing to speak out about what is happening in their own communities and outlets where those stories can be heard, there is hope for America.

My sincere thanks to the editors of FrontPage Magazine and the David Horowitz Freedom Center for continuing to allow me to tell my small part of the Hometown Jihad story. Their work is worthy of your support.

Click Here to support Frontpagemag.com.

After Action Report–General Barry R McCaffrey (Ret)
Posted By Administrator On March 28, 2007 @ 1:58 am In Vox Sententia | 5 Comments
[1]



Adjunct Professor of International Affairs

March 26, 2007

MEMORANDUM FOR: Colonel Michael Meese Professor and Head Dept of Social Sciences
CC: Colonel Cindy Jebb Professor and Deputy Head Dept of Social Sciences
SUBJECT: After Action Report—General Barry R McCaffrey USA (Ret)
VISIT IRAQ AND KUWAIT 9-16 March 2007
1. PURPOSE: This memo provides feedback on my strategic and operational assessment of security operations in both Iraq and Kuwait in support of US Central Command. Look forward to providing lectures to the Faculty Seminar and National Security Seminar during upcoming visit on 4 April 2007.

2. SOURCES:

A. Iraq:
See bottom of report for this....
3. THE PROBLEM:
These are the facts.
Iraq is ripped by a low grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of foreign fighters (500+) — and a couple of thousand Al Qaeda operatives incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia holy places and innocent civilians. Thousands of attacks target US Military Forces (2900 IED’s) a month—primarily stand off attacks with IED’s, rockets, mortars, snipers, and mines from both Shia (EFP attacks are a primary casualty producer) —and Sunni (85% of all attacks—80% of US deaths—16% of Iraqi population.)
Three million Iraqis are internally displaced or have fled the country to Syria and Jordan. The technical and educated elites are going into self-imposed exile—a huge brain drain that imperils the ability to govern. The Maliki government has little credibility among the Shia populations from which it emerged. It is despised by the Sunni as a Persian surrogate. It is believed untrustworthy and incompetent by the Kurds.
There is no function of government that operates effectively across the nation— not health care, not justice, not education, not transportation, not labor and commerce, not electricity, not oil production. There is no province in the country in which the government has dominance. The government cannot spend its own money effectively. ($7.1 billion sits in New York banks.) No Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat, reporter, foreign NGO, nor contractor can walk the streets of Baghdad, nor Mosul, nor Kirkuk, nor Basra, nor Tikrit, nor Najaf, nor Ramadi—without heavily armed protection.
The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible for thousands of extra-judicial killings. There is no effective nation-wide court system. There are in general almost no acceptable Iraqi penal institutions. The population is terrorized by rampant criminal gangs involved in kidnapping, extortion, robbery, rape, massive stealing of public property —such as electrical lines, oil production material, government transportation, etc. (Saddam released 80,000 criminal prisoners.)

The Iraqi Army is too small, very badly equipped (inadequate light armor, junk Soviet small arms, no artillery, no helicopters to speak of, currently no actual or planned ground attack aircraft of significance, no significant air transport assets (only three C-130’s), no national military logistics system, no national military medical system, etc. The Iraqi Army is also unduly dominated by the Shia, and in many battalions lacks discipline. There is no legal authority to punish Iraqi soldiers or police who desert their comrades. (The desertion/AWOL numbers frequently leave Iraqi Army battalions at 50% strength or less.)
In total, enemy insurgents or armed sectarian militias (SCIRI, JAM, Pesh Merga, AQI, 1920’s Brigade, et. al.) probably exceed 100,000 armed fighters. These non-government armed bands are in some ways more capable of independent operations than the regularly constituted ISF. They do not depend fundamentally on foreign support for their operations. Most of their money, explosives, and leadership are generated inside Iraq. The majority of the Iraqi population (Sunni and Shia) support armed attacks on American forces. Although we have arrested 120,000 insurgents (hold 27,000) and killed some huge number of enemy combatants (perhaps 20,000+) — the armed insurgents, militias, and Al Qaeda in Iraq without fail apparently re-generate both leadership cadres and foot soldiers. Their sophistication, numbers, and lethality go up— not down— as they incur these staggering battle losses.
US domestic support for the war in Iraq has evaporated and will not return. The great majority of the country thinks the war was a mistake. The US Congress now has a central focus on constraining the Administration use of military power in Iraq —and potentially Iran. The losses of US Army, Marine, and Special Operations Force casualties in Iraq now exceed 27,000 killed and wounded. (Note: The Iraqi Security Forces have suffered more than 49,000 casualties in the last 14 months.) The war costs $9 Billion per month. Stateside US Army and Marine Corps readiness ratings are starting to unravel. Ground combat equipment is shot in both the active and reserve components. Army active and reserve component recruiting has now encountered serious quality and number problems. In many cases we are forced to use US contractors to substitute for required military functions. (128,000 contractors in Iraq—includes more than 2000 armed security personnel.) Waivers in US Army recruiting standards for: moral turpitude, drug use, medical issues, criminal justice records, and non-high school graduation have gone up significantly. We now are enlisting 42 year old first term soldiers. Our promotion rates for officers and NCOs have skyrocketed to replace departing leaders. There is no longer a national or a theater US Army strategic reserve. (Fortunately, powerful US Naval, Air Force, and nuclear capabilities command huge deterrence credibility.)
We are at the “knee of the curve.” Two million+ troops of the smallest active Army force since WWII have served in the war zone. Some active units have served three, four, or even five combat deployments. We are now routinely extending nearly all combat units in both Iraq and Afghanistan. These combat units are being returned to action in some cases with only 7-12 months of stateside time to re-train and re-equip. The current deployment requirement of 20+ brigades to Iraq and 2+ brigades in Afghanistan is not sustainable.
We will be forced to call up as many as nine National Guard combat brigades for an involuntary second combat tour this coming year. (Dr Chu at DOD has termed this as “no big deal.”) Many believe that this second round of involuntary call-ups will topple the weakened National Guard structure— which is so central to US domestic security. The National Guard Bureau has argued for a call up of only 12 months instead of 18 months. This misses the point—DOD will without fail be forced to also extend these National Guard brigades in combat at the last minute given the continuation of the current emergency situation.
Iraq’s neighbors are a problem— not part of the solution (with the exception of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait). They provide little positive political or economic support to the Maliki government.
Our allies are leaving to include the courageous and well equipped Brit’s—by January 2008 we will be largely on our own.
In summary, the US Armed Forces are in a position of strategic peril. A disaster in Iraq will in all likelihood result in a widened regional struggle which will endanger America’s strategic interests (oil) in the Mid-east for a generation. We will also produce another generation of soldiers who lack confidence in their American politicians, the media, and their own senior military leadership.

4. THE CURRENT SITUATION:

This is the situation.
Since the arrival of General David Petraeus in command of Multi-National Force Iraq— the situation on the ground has clearly and measurably improved.

1st: The Maliki government has given the green light to prune out elements of the renegade Sadr organization in Baghdad. More than 600+ rogue leaders have been harvested by US and Iraqi special operations forces with the explicit or tacit consent of the government. Sadr himself has fled to Iran and many of his key leaders have escaped to the safety of the Shia south. His fighting cadres were ordered to go to ground, hide their weapons, take down their check points, stop the terrible ethnic cleansing and terror tactics against the Sunni population, and ignore (not cooperate) with US and ISF forces.

2nd:The US and Iraqi Forces have now dramatically changed their operational scheme. More then 50+ Iraqi Police/Army and US Army Joint Security Stations (JSS) are now being emplaced across the city and extended into the suburbs. The pre-operation planning and rehearsals were superb. The presence of these joint military elements is now becoming ubiquitous across the urban areas. Although many of these small outposts have been attacked—none has yet been seriously jeopardized. The Iraqi people are encouraged —life is almost immediately springing back in many parts of the city. The murder rate has plummeted. IED attacks on US forces during their formerly vulnerable daily transits from huge US bases on the periphery of Baghdad are down— since these forces are now permanently based in their operational area.

3rd: The Iraqis have finally committed credible numbers of integrated Police and Army units to the battle of Baghdad. The strength of IA, IP, and NP units has steadily gone up aided by clever monetary and troop leader incentives. The ISF formations are showing increased willingness to aggressively operate against insurgent/militia forces. Although there is continuing political interference by politicians of both the Iraqi Administration and legislators— this is clearly a serious urban security operation.

4th: There is a real and growing ground swell of Sunni tribal opposition to the Al Qaeda-in-Iraq terror formations. (90% Iraqi.) This counter-Al Qaeda movement in Anbar Province was fostered by brilliant US Marine leadership. There is now unmistakable evidence that the western Sunni tribes are increasingly convinced that they blundered badly by sitting out the political process. They are also keenly aware of the fragility of the continued US military presence that stands between them and a vengeful and overwhelming Shia-Kurdish majority class— which was brutally treated by Saddam and his cruel regime. There is now active combat between Sunni tribal leadership and AQI terrorists. Of even greater importance, the Sunni tribes are now supplying their young men as drafts for the Iraqi Police. (IP). AQI is responding with customary and sickening violence. Police are beheaded in groups; families of IP officers are murdered (or in one case a 12 year old boy was run over multiple times by a truck in front of his family)—all designed to intimidate the tribes. It is not working. The Takfiri AQI extremism of: no music, no photos, no videos, no cutting of beards, etc does not sit well with the moderate form of Islam practiced among the western tribes. This is a crucial struggle and it is going our way—for now.

5th: The equipment and resources for the Iraqi Security Forces has increased dramatically. The ISF has planned 2007 expenditures of more than $7.3 billion. The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior are the only two of 27 Iraqi Ministries that have executed their budgets at 90% plus satisfactory rates. (General Petraeus is now putting US military liaison officers in ten additional civilian Ministries to jump start their budget process.) PM Maliki has pushed to create a larger security force of more than 100,000 Iraqi Army troops. Thousands (3500) of armored Humvee’s, Cougar and BTR-80 light wheeled armored vehicles (500+) , and other equipment (3500 RPG’s, 1400 heavy machine guns, 900+ mortars, 80+ helicopters) are now flowing into the force. To my great surprise, the Iraqis are using FMS Sales to execute their capital expenditure program with great effect. This includes transition to all US small arms for M4 Carbine and M16A2 rifle. (They will continue to use Soviet type machine guns.) The ISF training system is beginning to work effectively with their own trainers. (However, there are still requirements for the more than 5000+ US military and contract police trainers). The Iraqi training base is cranking out 24,000 soldiers a year from 5 Regional and two national training bases. More than 12 Police Academies are producing 26,000 new police a year. The end goal will be an Iraqi security force of more than 370,000 Police and Army— organized in 120 battalions.

6th: Reconciliation of the internal warring elements in Iraq will be how we eventually win the war in Iraq—if it happens. There is a very sophisticated and carefully integrated approach by the Iraqi government and Coalition actors to defuse the armed violence from internal enemies and bring people into the political process. There are encouraging signs that the peace and participation message does resonate with many of the more moderate Sunni and Shia warring factions. Of course, there is no intent to negotiate with either the extreme Bathist elements or the Al Qaeda in Iraq terrorists. The UK three star Deputy MNF-I Commander – (LTG Graeme Lamb) has done a superb job with this process.

7th: US Combat forces are simply superb. The Army and Marine brigade, battalion, and company commanders are the most experienced and talented leaders in our history. Re-enlistment rates are simply astonishing. The joint integration of combat power is extremely effective — but is deemed unremarkable by the involved units. (I found a Marine battalion—with all three of its fighting companies attached from an Army battalion.) These Marine and Army combat units rapidly employ synchronized air and ground combat power, use enormous fire discipline, are compassionate with vulnerable civilians, and move with explosive energy and courage when they pin a target.

The command and control technology, training, contractor support, and flexibility of Marine and Army combat formations are magnificent. Digital data, integrated feed of all live sensors to include persistent “eyes on target” UAV’s, immediate recovery of data in formats that promote decision-making, and enormous technical competence of battle staff personnel are hallmarks of the system. The downside is that at division and brigade level these C3I command posts are not movable. I do not believe that division or brigade commanders have developed, equipped and rehearsed Assault CP teams. They simply are not prepared to effectively fight a war of maneuver. (For example, against the Syrians or Iranians.)

The wariness, adherence to ROE, and discipline of the involved air and ground forces are awe-inspiring. I watched with fascination the attack video of an Apache whose pilots held fire at absolutely the last second —when what they suspected (correctly) was an innocent farmer appeared in the foreground of a pending Hellfire launch against 5-6 armed insurgents. The pilot painstakingly changed his attack angle— and sailed the Hellfire over the farmer’s head and successfully nailed the insurgents.
The attention to detail of US Army and Marine units on Entry Control Points (ECP’s) makes me enormously proud as a former combat platoon leader and company commander. Week after week—in unbelievably adverse weather (near freezing to 125 degrees Fahrenheit—the ECP troops man these controlled access areas which require extreme vigilance if their buddies are to be protected. I watched several chilling tapes of the instant death suffered by these brave troops (US or Iraqi) when a suicide bomber actual detonates himself in the position.
8th: The US Tier One special operations capability is simply magic. They are deadly in getting their target—with normally zero collateral damage—and with minimal friendly losses or injuries. Some of these assault elements have done 200-300 takedown operations at platoon level. The comprehensive intelligence system is phenomenal. We need to re-think how we view these forces. They are a national strategic system akin to a B1 bomber. We need to understand that the required investment level in the creation of these forces demands substantial dedicated UAV systems, intelligence, and communications resources. These special operations formations cannot by themselves win the nation’s wars. However, with them we have a tool of enormous and decisive strategic significance which has crucial importance in the global war on terrorists.

9th: The US Armed Forces logistic system is successfully providing 100% of required supplies, services, maintenance, medical support, and material for battle. Never in the history of warfare has a military force been more generously and effectively supported than in Iraq. It is also a house of cards. We need a Joint Logistics command. We need to provide additional resource muscle to create a more robust LOC thru Jordan to Iraq. We are overly dependant on civilian contractors. In extreme danger—they will not fight.

We are overly dependant on Kuwait for logistics. If Iranian military action closed the Persian Gulf—the US combat force in Iraq would immediately begin to suffocate logistically. We cannot depend on a Turkish LOC in the coming five years.

We need 500 USAF C17’s and the tanker fleet required to support them. The Air Force flew 13,000 truck loads of material into Iraq for pinpoint distribution last year. The two USAF Squadrons of C17’s now in-theater make a gigantic contribution.

The support of Kuwait has been absolutely vital to our war on terror. The presence of 22,000 US Army Forces, 6000 US contractors, and 1800 Air Force personnel is crucial to the continuation of military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gulf. Kuwait is the lynchpin of the entire logistics effort. We send a thousand trucks a day up into Iraq from Kuwait. It is impressive how effectively we have lowered our signature and footprint in Kuwait. We have come down from twenty-three bases –to four. Camp Arifjan has been reduced in size by more than 1/3rd. We need strong continued diplomatic support and recognition of Kuwait’s courageous support of the war effort.

5. THE WAY AHEAD:

In my judgment, we can still achieve our objective of a stable Iraq, at peace with its neighbors, not producing weapons of mass destruction, and fully committed to a law-based government. The courage and strength of the US Armed Forces still gives us latitude and time to build the economic and political conditions that might defuse the ongoing civil war. Our central purpose is to allow the nation to re-establish governance based on some loose federal consensus among the three major ethnic-factional actors. (Shia, Sunni, Kurd.)

We have very little time left. This President will have the remainder of his months in office beleaguered by his political opponents to the war. The democratic control of Congress and its vocal opposition can actually provide a helpful framework within which our brilliant new Ambassador Ryan Crocker can maneuver the Maliki administration to understand their diminishing options. It is very unlikely that the US political opposition can constitutionally force the President into retreat. However, our next President will only have 12 months or less to get Iraq straight before he/she is forced to pull the plug. Therefore, our planning horizons should assume that there are less than 36 months remaining of substantial US troop presence in Iraq. The insurgency will continue in some form for a decade. This suggests the fundamental dilemma facing US policymakers.

The US Armed Forces cannot sustain the current deployment rate. We will leave the nation at risk to other threats from new hostile actors if we shatter the capabilities of our undersized and under-resourced Army, Marine, and special operations forces. The Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs must get Congress to provide emergency levels of resources, manpower, and energy into this rapidly failing system. If we do not aggressively rebuild —the capability of the force actually deployed in Iraq will also degrade— and we are likely to encounter a disaster.

The primary war winning strategy for the United States in the coming 12 months must be for Ambassador Ryan and General Petraeus to focus their considerable personal leadership skills on getting the top 100 Shia and Sunni leaders to walk back from the edge of all-out civil war. Reconciliation is the way out. There will be no imposed military solution with the current non-sustainable US force levels. Military power cannot alone defeat an insurgency—the political and economic struggle for power is the actual field of battle.

A sufficient but not necessary condition of success is adequate resources to build an Iraqi Army, National Police, local Police, and Border Patrol. We are still in the wrong ball park. The Iraqis need to capacity to jail 150,000 criminals and terrorists. They must have an air force with 150 US helicopters. (The US Armed Forces have 100+ medevac helicopters and 700 lift or attack aircraft in-country.) They need 5000 light armored vehicles for their ten divisions. They need enough precision, radar-assisted counter-battery artillery to suppress the constant mortar and rocket attacks on civilian and military targets. They should have 24 C130’s—and perhaps three squadrons of light ground attack aircraft. I mention these numbers not to be precise—but to give an order of magnitude estimation that refutes our current anemic effort. The ISF have taken horrendous casualties. We must give them the leverage to replace us as our combat formations withdraw in the coming 36 months.

Finally, we must focus on the creation of a regional dialog led by the Iraqis with US active participation. The diplomatic process in the short run is unlikely to produce useful results. However, in the coming five years—it will be a prerequisite to a successful US military withdrawal —that we open a neutral and permanent political forum (perhaps in Saudi Arabia) in which Iraq’s neighbors are drawn into continuing cooperative engagement. A regional war would be a disaster for 25 years in the Mid-East. A continuing peace discussion forum may give us the diplomatic leverage to neutralize these malignant forces that surround and menace Iraq.

6. SUMMARY:

We have brilliant military and civilian leadership on the ground in Iraq. General Dave Petraeus, LTG Ray Odierno, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have the country’s treasure and combat power at their disposal. Our cause is just. The consequence of failure will be severe.
The American people hold that the US Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in our society. The polls also show that domestic opinion is not calling for precipitous withdrawal. However, this whole Iraq operation is on the edge of unraveling as the poor Iraqis batter each other to death with our forces caught in the middle.\

We now need a last powerful effort to provide to US leaders on the ground —the political support, economic reconstruction resources, and military strength it requires to succeed.

Barry R. McCaffrey
General USA (Ret)

Adjunct Professor of International Affairs

1.) Gen David Petraeus. MNF-I CG: One-on-one Exit Briefing. Working dinner. One-on-one in-brief office call.
2.) Chargé (DCM): Ambassador Daniel Speckhard.
3.) LTG Raymond Odierno: Commander Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I).
4.) LTG Graeme Lamb. (UK) DCG of Multi-National Force – Iraq (MNF-I): One-on-one Office Call.
5.) LTG Marty Dempsey. (MNSTC-I) CG: Briefings. “Developing the Iraqi Army and Police.” Working lunch.
6.) Senior Special Operations General Officer. OCF-I CG: Update on Direct Action – Counter Terrorism.
7.) MG Randy Mixon. Multi-National Division – North (MND-N) CG 25th Infantry Division: Office Call. Working supper. TOC Briefing. (Tikrit).
8.) MG Thomas Moore, USMC. Multi-National Force – Iraq (MNF-I) Chief of Staff: Office Call.
9.) MG Walter Gaskins, USMC. Multi-National Division West. (Marines. Fallujah) (MNF-W) Commander Ground Combat Element. Fallujah: Working lunch. Intelligence assessment briefing. Long term assessment briefing.
10.) GO Briefings. MG Dave Fastaband, MG Kurt Cichowski (DCS SPA), MG Bill Caldwell, MG Skip Scott, (UK) BG Baverstock (DDCS SPA): General officer seminar/tutorial. “The Situation in Iraq.”
11.) American Embassy Baghdad Country Team Briefing – AMB Speckhard, AMB Joe Saloom (Director of IRMO), AMB Tim Carney (Economic Coordinator), BG Mike Walsh (Gulf Region Division Corps of Engineers), Mr. Dan Weygandt (ECON Counselor), Dr. Terry Kelly (JSPA): Meeting/Briefings.
12.) MG Jack Gardner. Commander. US Detention Facility — Iraqi Detainees: Staff briefings. Intelligence and detainee operations.
13.) MG Joe Fils. CG Multi-National Division-Baghdad (MND-B): Office call.
14.) BG Vince Brooks. (ADC-O) and Division Battle Staff. 1st Cav Div. (MND-B): Battle Staff Briefing.
15.) BG Steve Anderson. MNF-I (R&S): Dinner/Discussions. Coalition logistics.
16.) BG Dana Pittard. CG, Iraq Assistance Group. ”Creating the Iraqi Security Forces”
17.) COL Pete Forman, Chief-of-staff. Briefing: “Embedded Training Teams.”
18.) Visit – Joint US-Iraqi HQs. West Baghdad. Briefings. Baghdad Security.
MAJ Gen. —CG. 6th Iraqi Army Division MAJ Gen. —CG. 2nd National Police Division
MAJ Gen. —CG. Iraqi KAC. COL Britt, MET Chief COL Griese, 1st Cav Div. (ISF G3 Chief)19.) Commander — CJSOTF-AP: Special Forces support of Iraqi operations. (Balad).
20.) 13th Sustainment Command (Balad). Logistics support for the coalition. Working breakfast:
COL Crissy Gayagas. Dep CMD
COL David Cotter. Chief-of-Staff.
COL Gregg Gross. Distribution.
COL Glenn Grothe. G-3.
21.) COL Burton. Commander. 2nd Brigade Combat Team. 1st Inf. Div: Visit Command Post. Baghdad security operations.
22.) COL Mike Kershaw. Commander. 2nd Brigade Combat Team. 10th Mountain Division: Visit Command Post. Baghdad security operations.
23.) LTC — Intelligence: Working breakfast — “The Enemy Situation.”
24.) Military Police Major. Working breakfast — “Detainee Operations.”
25.) Mr. Michael von der Schulenburg. UN Representative to Iraq (Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General) SRSG: Two hour office call. “The political situation in Iraq.”
26.) USAID Briefings. US Embassy– Green Zone. Ms. Hilda Arellano and Mr. Mike Harvey: USAID Country Development Plan.
27.) Mr. Derek Harvey (CIOC): Meeting.
28.) MAJ John Atkins. Mr. Brian McLaughlin. Mr. Anthony Garcia: Briefing on ISF Readiness.
29.) COL Murray. LTC Jeff McDougall (C3 Plans). COL John Orourke (Dep C3). MAJ O. Ken Straller (C3 Plans). COL Martin Wilson (Chief Plans and Policy). MAJ James Powell (Campaign Planner): MNC-I Plans.
30.) Asymmetric Warfare Group — MAJ Blake Conners (TRP CDR). Matt Dennis (opso). Kevin Corbit (Field Team). Mike Campbell (TRP SRG). Dana Guy. James Kramas: Working Dinner.


B. Kuwait:

1.) Ambassador Richard Lebaron. Kuwait: Working breakfast. (Plus DCM, DAO, Dep CDR OMC-K)
2.) LTG Steve Whitcomb, USA. Commander 3rd Army. Camp Arifjan, Kuwait.
3.) MG Dennis Hardy. DCG. 3rd US Army: Office Call/Briefing. “The support concept for US Forces Iraq and Afghanistan.”
4.) BG Sam Thompson, USA (Ret): President MPRI Corp. Kuwait.
5.) BG Joe Martz: Camp Beuhring. Udari Range. “Final training – pre-entry to Iraq.”
6.) BG Mark Solo, USAF. Chief, OMC-K: “The situation in Kuwait.”
7.) Colonel David Cordon. Vice Chief, OMC-K: Briefing. “The Kuwait Armed Forces.”
8.) LTC Robert Friedenburg. Chief. Defense Attaché Office: Briefing – “The situation in Kuwait.”
9.) General Officer/Senior Leader Working Dinner. Briefing—”US Forces in Kuwait.” Camp Arifjan

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March 29, 2007
Op-Ed Columnist
No U-Turns

By DAVID BROOKS
There is an argument floating around Republican circles that in order to win again, the G.O.P. has to reconnect with the truths of its Goldwater-Reagan glory days. It has to once again be the minimal-government party, the maximal-freedom party, the party of rugged individualism and states’ rights.

This is folly. It’s the wrong diagnosis of current realities and so the wrong prescription for the future.

Back in the 1970s, when Reaganism became popular, top tax rates were in the 70s, growth was stagnant and inflation was high. Federal regulation stifled competition. Government welfare policies enabled a culture of dependency. Socialism was still a coherent creed, and many believed the capitalist world was headed toward a Swedish welfare model.

In short, in the 1970s, normal, nonideological people were right to think that their future prospects might be dimmed by a stultifying state. People were right to believe that government was undermining personal responsibility. People were right to have what Tyler Cowen, in a brilliant essay in Cato Unbound, calls the “liberty vs. power” paradigm burned into their minds — the idea that big government means less personal liberty.

But today, many of those old problems have receded or been addressed. Today the big threats to people’s future prospects come from complex, decentralized phenomena: Islamic extremism, failed states, global competition, global warming, nuclear proliferation, a skills-based economy, economic and social segmentation.

Normal, nonideological people are less concerned about the threat to their freedom from an overweening state than from the threats posed by these amorphous yet pervasive phenomena. The “liberty vs. power” paradigm is less germane. It’s been replaced in the public consciousness with a “security leads to freedom” paradigm. People with a secure base are more free to take risks and explore the possibilities of their world.

People with secure health care can switch jobs more easily. People who feel free from terror can live their lives more loosely. People who come from stable homes and pass through engaged schools are free to choose from a wider range of opportunities.

The “security leads to freedom” paradigm is a fundamental principle of child psychology, but conservative think tankers and activists have been slow to recognize the change in their historical circumstance. All their intellectual training has been oriented by the “liberty vs. power” paradigm. (Postwar planning in Iraq was so poor because many in the G.O.P. were not really alive to the truth that security is a precondition for freedom.)

The general public, which is less invested in abstract principles, has been quicker to grope its way toward the new mental framework. As a Pew poll released last week indicated, the public has not lost its suspicion of big government. Most Americans believe government regulation does more harm than good. But they do think government should be more active in redressing segmentation and inequality. Almost all corporations, including Wal-Mart, have extraordinarily high approval ratings. But voters are clearly anxious about globalization.

The Republican Party, which still talks as if government were the biggest threat to choice, has lost touch with independent voters. Offered a choice between stale Democrats and stale Republicans, voters now choose Democrats, who at least talk about economic and domestic security.

The Democrats have a 15 point advantage in voter identification. Voters prefer Democratic economic policies by 14 points, Democratic tax policies by 15 points, Democratic health care policies by 24 points and Democratic energy policies by 20 points. If this is a country that wants to return to Barry Goldwater, it is showing it by supporting the policies of Dick Durbin.

The sad thing is that President Bush sensed this shift in public consciousness back in 1999. Compassionate conservatism was an attempt to move beyond the “liberty vs. power” paradigm. But because it was never fleshed out and because the Congressional G.O.P. rejected the implant, a new Republican governing philosophy did not emerge.

The party is going to have to make another run at it. As it does, it will have to shift mentalities. The “security leads to freedom” paradigm doesn’t end debate between left and right, it just engages on different ground. It is oriented less toward negative liberty (How can I get the government off my back?) and more toward positive liberty (Can I choose how to lead my life?).

Goldwater and Reagan were important leaders, but they’re not models for the future